{"market":"costa_blanca","generated_at":"2026-07-19T04:32:34.784Z","net_signal":"strongly_bullish","confidence":62,"bull_count":11,"bear_count":1,"neutral_count":5,"indicators_by_category":{"macro":[{"id":"af942c84-1c67-41e8-95e7-7908dfa114c2","name":"Costa Blanca YoY","category":"macro","description":"Costa Blanca average asking price YoY change.","current_value":9.4,"prev_value":8.1,"change_pct":16,"signal":"bullish","lead_time_days":30,"causal_strength":0.9,"target_market":"costa_blanca","last_updated":"2026-05-23T10:53:08.549427+00:00"},{"id":"cfffad5b-99bc-4537-8624-8b55d4ddd6cd","name":"ECB Main Refi Rate","category":"macro","description":"European Central Bank policy rate. Falling rates = cheaper mortgages = bullish for housing demand.","current_value":2.4,"prev_value":2.65,"change_pct":-9.4,"signal":"bullish","lead_time_days":90,"causal_strength":0.85,"target_market":"all_spain","last_updated":"2026-05-23T10:53:08.549427+00:00"},{"id":"cd78362f-1656-456c-b538-68fa0abe7d5a","name":"Euribor 12M","category":"macro","description":"12-month euro interbank rate. Anchor for Spanish variable mortgages.","current_value":2.65,"prev_value":2.95,"change_pct":-10.2,"signal":"bullish","lead_time_days":90,"causal_strength":0.8,"target_market":"all_spain","last_updated":"2026-05-23T10:53:08.549427+00:00"},{"id":"5d38f407-90e8-44e6-a447-262bc2915078","name":"Euribor 3M","category":"macro","description":"3-month euro interbank rate. Tracks ECB closely, drives variable-rate mortgages.","current_value":2.85,"prev_value":3.1,"change_pct":-8.1,"signal":"bullish","lead_time_days":60,"causal_strength":0.78,"target_market":"all_spain","last_updated":"2026-05-23T10:53:08.549427+00:00"},{"id":"570b0b14-d2ed-4ced-bce5-be0429de1c14","name":"Spain GDP Growth","category":"macro","description":"Real GDP growth YoY. Above 2% = expansion = housing demand.","current_value":2.9,"prev_value":2.7,"change_pct":7.4,"signal":"bullish","lead_time_days":90,"causal_strength":0.7,"target_market":"all_spain","last_updated":"2026-05-23T10:53:08.549427+00:00"},{"id":"508da729-d8dd-464b-a74f-25fb5041a3f6","name":"Spain HICP Inflation YoY","category":"macro","description":"Spain harmonised consumer price inflation. Falling inflation supports ECB easing path.","current_value":2.8,"prev_value":3.1,"change_pct":-9.7,"signal":"bullish","lead_time_days":120,"causal_strength":0.65,"target_market":"all_spain","last_updated":"2026-05-23T10:53:08.549427+00:00"},{"id":"8a4616fd-2db9-4e48-8418-72eff7169871","name":"Spain 10Y Bond","category":"macro","description":"Spanish 10-year sovereign yield. Risk-free reference for real estate cap rates.","current_value":3.21,"prev_value":3.2,"change_pct":0.3,"signal":"neutral","lead_time_days":180,"causal_strength":0.6,"target_market":"all_spain","last_updated":"2026-05-23T10:53:08.549427+00:00"},{"id":"186625f0-fdf7-4f06-aaca-43d018e79d73","name":"Spain Unemployment","category":"macro","description":"Headline unemployment rate. Falling = consumer confidence + buying power.","current_value":11.2,"prev_value":11.3,"change_pct":-0.9,"signal":"neutral","lead_time_days":180,"causal_strength":0.55,"target_market":"all_spain","last_updated":"2026-05-23T10:53:08.549427+00:00"},{"id":"038b1366-3672-47bd-adcc-668c1da5553b","name":"Brent Crude","category":"macro","description":"Brent crude oil. Lower = lower inflation = supports ECB easing.","current_value":72.4,"prev_value":78.2,"change_pct":-7.4,"signal":"bullish","lead_time_days":90,"causal_strength":0.5,"target_market":"all_spain","last_updated":"2026-05-23T10:53:08.549427+00:00"}],"demand":[{"id":"e15bb122-32c2-488c-9785-484ff0855513","name":"Spain Mortgage Approvals YoY","category":"demand","description":"INE monthly mortgage origination data. Leading indicator of completed transactions.","current_value":8.3,"prev_value":6.1,"change_pct":36.1,"signal":"bullish","lead_time_days":45,"causal_strength":0.85,"target_market":"all_spain","last_updated":"2026-05-23T10:53:08.549427+00:00"},{"id":"08899be8-dc9d-412f-bb6f-9e5476842e45","name":"Alicante Transactions YoY","category":"demand","description":"Notarial transaction volume in Alicante province YoY.","current_value":7.1,"prev_value":6.2,"change_pct":14.5,"signal":"bullish","lead_time_days":30,"causal_strength":0.8,"target_market":"costa_blanca","last_updated":"2026-05-23T10:53:08.549427+00:00"},{"id":"2854c53a-4377-48ee-861c-410230d78f16","name":"Foreign Buyer Share","category":"demand","description":"Foreign-buyer percentage of Spanish residential transactions. Notarial data.","current_value":19.3,"prev_value":18.4,"change_pct":4.9,"signal":"bullish","lead_time_days":30,"causal_strength":0.75,"target_market":"all_spain","last_updated":"2026-05-23T10:53:08.549427+00:00"}],"supply":[{"id":"dcd22ee0-6391-425e-94c3-ffafcc794430","name":"New Supply YoY","category":"supply","description":"New-build pipeline volume YoY. Rising supply pressures prices over 12-18 months.","current_value":12.4,"prev_value":10.2,"change_pct":21.6,"signal":"bearish","lead_time_days":180,"causal_strength":0.65,"target_market":"all_spain","last_updated":"2026-05-23T10:53:08.549427+00:00"}],"sentiment":[{"id":"7a8bf500-0e57-4010-abca-e730aff7b2cd","name":"Spain Consumer Confidence","category":"sentiment","description":"CIS consumer confidence index. Rising = households more willing to commit to long-duration assets.","current_value":89.2,"prev_value":86.5,"change_pct":3.1,"signal":"bullish","lead_time_days":60,"causal_strength":0.6,"target_market":"all_spain","last_updated":"2026-05-23T10:53:08.549427+00:00"}],"flow":[{"id":"540bfd68-0f14-4b4d-9879-ab100eab6604","name":"EUR/GBP","category":"flow","description":"EUR/GBP exchange rate. GBP strength = UK buyer purchasing power on Spain.","current_value":0.856,"prev_value":0.862,"change_pct":-0.7,"signal":"neutral","lead_time_days":30,"causal_strength":0.5,"target_market":"all_spain","last_updated":"2026-05-23T10:53:08.549427+00:00"},{"id":"e950c484-593a-43bd-9249-7e45893b3ce2","name":"EUR/NOK","category":"flow","description":"EUR/NOK exchange rate. NOK strength = Norwegian buyer activity on Costa Blanca.","current_value":11.42,"prev_value":11.39,"change_pct":0.3,"signal":"neutral","lead_time_days":30,"causal_strength":0.45,"target_market":"all_spain","last_updated":"2026-05-23T10:53:08.549427+00:00"},{"id":"c9c7fc73-bc71-4aef-9616-3e3db18b9acb","name":"EUR/SEK","category":"flow","description":"EUR/SEK exchange rate. SEK weakness = Swedish buyers slower.","current_value":11.51,"prev_value":11.44,"change_pct":0.6,"signal":"neutral","lead_time_days":30,"causal_strength":0.4,"target_market":"all_spain","last_updated":"2026-05-23T10:53:08.549427+00:00"}]},"causal_chain":null,"latest_debate":null,"source":"Avena Terminal — Causal Intelligence Engine","doi":"10.5281/zenodo.19520064"}