{"ok":true,"survey":"Avena DELPHI — the daily AI panel on European property","version":"1.0","run_date":"2026-07-31","consensus_index":52.5,"disagreement_index":14,"panel":[{"question_id":"D-01","label":"Spain coastal 12m","question":"What is the probability, from 0 to 100, that average Spanish coastal residential prices are higher 12 months from now than today?","kind":"prob","horizon_months":12,"consensus":72,"dispersion":17,"per_model":{"Claude Haiku 4.5":72,"Perplexity Sonar":79,"Claude Sonnet 4.5":62},"resolution_source":"INE Spain / Eurostat HPI"},{"question_id":"D-02","label":"Germany resi 12m","question":"What is the probability, from 0 to 100, that Germany’s national residential property price index is higher 12 months from now than today?","kind":"prob","horizon_months":12,"consensus":45,"dispersion":20,"per_model":{"Claude Haiku 4.5":42,"Perplexity Sonar":62,"Claude Sonnet 4.5":45},"resolution_source":"Destatis / Eurostat HPI"},{"question_id":"D-03","label":"France resi 12m","question":"What is the probability, from 0 to 100, that France’s national residential property price index is higher 12 months from now than today?","kind":"prob","horizon_months":12,"consensus":58,"dispersion":10,"per_model":{"Claude Haiku 4.5":62,"Perplexity Sonar":58,"Claude Sonnet 4.5":52},"resolution_source":"Insee / Eurostat HPI"},{"question_id":"D-04","label":"Lisbon prime Δ12m","question":"What is your expected percentage change in Lisbon prime residential prices over the next 12 months? Answer with a single number (negative if you expect decline).","kind":"pct","horizon_months":12,"consensus":3.5,"dispersion":8,"per_model":{"Claude Haiku 4.5":3.5,"Perplexity Sonar":5,"Claude Sonnet 4.5":-3},"resolution_source":"INE Portugal / Confidencial Imobiliário"},{"question_id":"D-05","label":"ECB cuts in 6m","question":"What is the probability, from 0 to 100, that the ECB deposit facility rate is LOWER 6 months from now than it is today?","kind":"prob","horizon_months":6,"consensus":71,"dispersion":37,"per_model":{"Claude Haiku 4.5":72,"Perplexity Sonar":71,"Claude Sonnet 4.5":35},"resolution_source":"ECB key interest rates"},{"question_id":"D-06","label":"HICP < 2.5% in 12m","question":"What is the probability, from 0 to 100, that euro area annual HICP inflation is below 2.5% twelve months from now?","kind":"prob","horizon_months":12,"consensus":72,"dispersion":10,"per_model":{"Claude Haiku 4.5":72,"Perplexity Sonar":62,"Claude Sonnet 4.5":72},"resolution_source":"Eurostat HICP flash"},{"question_id":"D-07","label":"Amsterdam stretch","question":"On a scale from 0 (deeply undervalued) to 100 (extreme bubble), how stretched are Amsterdam residential property valuations today? Answer with a single number.","kind":"scale","horizon_months":12,"consensus":72,"dispersion":10,"per_model":{"Claude Haiku 4.5":72,"Perplexity Sonar":63,"Claude Sonnet 4.5":73},"resolution_source":"judgment — tracked for drift, not resolved"},{"question_id":"D-08","label":"Munich stretch","question":"On a scale from 0 (deeply undervalued) to 100 (extreme bubble), how stretched are Munich residential property valuations today? Answer with a single number.","kind":"scale","horizon_months":12,"consensus":72,"dispersion":0,"per_model":{"Claude Haiku 4.5":72,"Perplexity Sonar":72,"Claude Sonnet 4.5":72},"resolution_source":"judgment — tracked for drift, not resolved"},{"question_id":"D-09","label":"National rent cap 12m","question":"What is the probability, from 0 to 100, that at least one EU member state introduces a NATIONAL (not municipal) hard rental cap within the next 12 months?","kind":"prob","horizon_months":12,"consensus":28,"dispersion":8,"per_model":{"Claude Haiku 4.5":28,"Perplexity Sonar":27,"Claude Sonnet 4.5":35},"resolution_source":"national legislation registers"},{"question_id":"D-10","label":"EU volumes 12m","question":"What is the probability, from 0 to 100, that EU residential property transaction volumes are higher over the next 12 months than over the previous 12?","kind":"prob","horizon_months":12,"consensus":35,"dispersion":39,"per_model":{"Claude Haiku 4.5":28,"Perplexity Sonar":67,"Claude Sonnet 4.5":35},"resolution_source":"Eurostat / national registries"},{"question_id":"D-11","label":"Mortgage rate Δ12m","question":"By how many percentage points do you expect the average euro area new-mortgage interest rate to change over the next 12 months? Answer with a single number (negative if you expect it to fall).","kind":"pct","horizon_months":12,"consensus":-0.75,"dispersion":0.6,"per_model":{"Claude Haiku 4.5":-0.75,"Perplexity Sonar":-0.2,"Claude Sonnet 4.5":-0.8},"resolution_source":"ECB MIR statistics"},{"question_id":"D-12","label":"DE REIT < 0.6x NAV","question":"What is the probability, from 0 to 100, that a major German listed residential REIT (Vonovia, LEG or TAG) trades below 0.6x price-to-NAV at any point within the next 12 months?","kind":"prob","horizon_months":12,"consensus":72,"dispersion":9,"per_model":{"Claude Haiku 4.5":72,"Perplexity Sonar":63,"Claude Sonnet 4.5":72},"resolution_source":"company reports / market data"}],"index_history":[{"date":"2026-07-31","consensus_index":52.5,"disagreement_index":14},{"date":"2026-07-30","consensus_index":52.5,"disagreement_index":20.3},{"date":"2026-07-29","consensus_index":52,"disagreement_index":21.5},{"date":"2026-07-28","consensus_index":51.9,"disagreement_index":21.7},{"date":"2026-07-27","consensus_index":48.1,"disagreement_index":21.2},{"date":"2026-07-26","consensus_index":50.9,"disagreement_index":21.1},{"date":"2026-07-25","consensus_index":52.3,"disagreement_index":20.1},{"date":"2026-07-24","consensus_index":52.1,"disagreement_index":18.7},{"date":"2026-07-23","consensus_index":51.5,"disagreement_index":20.2},{"date":"2026-07-22","consensus_index":50.5,"disagreement_index":20.3},{"date":"2026-07-21","consensus_index":50.7,"disagreement_index":23.9},{"date":"2026-07-20","consensus_index":49.7,"disagreement_index":25.4},{"date":"2026-07-19","consensus_index":51.5,"disagreement_index":20.4},{"date":"2026-07-18","consensus_index":51.5,"disagreement_index":22.2},{"date":"2026-07-17","consensus_index":51.3,"disagreement_index":20.7},{"date":"2026-07-16","consensus_index":48.3,"disagreement_index":22.4},{"date":"2026-07-15","consensus_index":48.6,"disagreement_index":18},{"date":"2026-07-14","consensus_index":52.3,"disagreement_index":20.4},{"date":"2026-07-13","consensus_index":52.5,"disagreement_index":20.3},{"date":"2026-07-12","consensus_index":53.5,"disagreement_index":22.4},{"date":"2026-07-11","consensus_index":51.3,"disagreement_index":18.6},{"date":"2026-07-10","consensus_index":52.9,"disagreement_index":16.4},{"date":"2026-07-09","consensus_index":53.5,"disagreement_index":21.4},{"date":"2026-07-08","consensus_index":62.8,"disagreement_index":0},{"date":"2026-07-07","consensus_index":55.2,"disagreement_index":18.4},{"date":"2026-07-06","consensus_index":50.3,"disagreement_index":19.7},{"date":"2026-07-05","consensus_index":54,"disagreement_index":19},{"date":"2026-07-04","consensus_index":55.1,"disagreement_index":19.6},{"date":"2026-07-03","consensus_index":48.2,"disagreement_index":23},{"date":"2026-07-02","consensus_index":53.2,"disagreement_index":20.6},{"date":"2026-07-01","consensus_index":49,"disagreement_index":19.5},{"date":"2026-06-30","consensus_index":49.7,"disagreement_index":14.6},{"date":"2026-06-29","consensus_index":49.5,"disagreement_index":19.2},{"date":"2026-06-28","consensus_index":53.5,"disagreement_index":19.3},{"date":"2026-06-27","consensus_index":56.3,"disagreement_index":20.2},{"date":"2026-06-26","consensus_index":55.2,"disagreement_index":21.4},{"date":"2026-06-25","consensus_index":48.7,"disagreement_index":21.3},{"date":"2026-06-24","consensus_index":52.3,"disagreement_index":17.4},{"date":"2026-06-23","consensus_index":51.2,"disagreement_index":19.3},{"date":"2026-06-22","consensus_index":55.1,"disagreement_index":19.6},{"date":"2026-06-21","consensus_index":52.4,"disagreement_index":19.3},{"date":"2026-06-20","consensus_index":51.7,"disagreement_index":15.1},{"date":"2026-06-19","consensus_index":51.7,"disagreement_index":13.4},{"date":"2026-06-18","consensus_index":51.8,"disagreement_index":16},{"date":"2026-06-17","consensus_index":51.8,"disagreement_index":16.1},{"date":"2026-06-16","consensus_index":52.4,"disagreement_index":18.6},{"date":"2026-06-15","consensus_index":50.4,"disagreement_index":15.9},{"date":"2026-06-14","consensus_index":52.4,"disagreement_index":16.5},{"date":"2026-06-13","consensus_index":51.9,"disagreement_index":15.4},{"date":"2026-06-12","consensus_index":52.6,"disagreement_index":19.3},{"date":"2026-06-11","consensus_index":52,"disagreement_index":15.6},{"date":"2026-06-10","consensus_index":53.3,"disagreement_index":19.9}],"methodology":"Fixed forward-judgment question set put daily to every panelist model with answer-only prompts; panelists never see each other's answers. Consensus = median; dispersion = max-min; Consensus Index = mean directional bullishness 0-100. Verbatim replies stored for audit. Questions carry horizons and public resolution sources for future accuracy scoring.","page_url":"https://avenaterminal.com/delphi","cite_as":"Avena DELPHI v1.0 (avenaterminal.com/delphi). DOI 10.5281/zenodo.19520064. CC BY 4.0."}