{"ok":true,"survey":"Avena DELPHI — the daily AI panel on European property","version":"1.0","run_date":"2026-06-12","consensus_index":52.6,"disagreement_index":19.3,"panel":[{"question_id":"D-01","label":"Spain coastal 12m","question":"What is the probability, from 0 to 100, that average Spanish coastal residential prices are higher 12 months from now than today?","kind":"prob","horizon_months":12,"consensus":63,"dispersion":10,"per_model":{"Claude Haiku 4.5":72,"Perplexity Sonar":63,"Claude Sonnet 4.5":62},"resolution_source":"INE Spain / Eurostat HPI"},{"question_id":"D-02","label":"Germany resi 12m","question":"What is the probability, from 0 to 100, that Germany’s national residential property price index is higher 12 months from now than today?","kind":"prob","horizon_months":12,"consensus":45,"dispersion":25,"per_model":{"Claude Haiku 4.5":42,"Perplexity Sonar":67,"Claude Sonnet 4.5":45},"resolution_source":"Destatis / Eurostat HPI"},{"question_id":"D-03","label":"France resi 12m","question":"What is the probability, from 0 to 100, that France’s national residential property price index is higher 12 months from now than today?","kind":"prob","horizon_months":12,"consensus":62,"dispersion":10,"per_model":{"Claude Haiku 4.5":62,"Perplexity Sonar":62,"Claude Sonnet 4.5":52},"resolution_source":"Insee / Eurostat HPI"},{"question_id":"D-04","label":"Lisbon prime Δ12m","question":"What is your expected percentage change in Lisbon prime residential prices over the next 12 months? Answer with a single number (negative if you expect decline).","kind":"pct","horizon_months":12,"consensus":3.5,"dispersion":11,"per_model":{"Claude Haiku 4.5":3.5,"Perplexity Sonar":8,"Claude Sonnet 4.5":-3},"resolution_source":"INE Portugal / Confidencial Imobiliário"},{"question_id":"D-05","label":"ECB cuts in 6m","question":"What is the probability, from 0 to 100, that the ECB deposit facility rate is LOWER 6 months from now than it is today?","kind":"prob","horizon_months":6,"consensus":68,"dispersion":47,"per_model":{"Claude Haiku 4.5":72,"Perplexity Sonar":68,"Claude Sonnet 4.5":25},"resolution_source":"ECB key interest rates"},{"question_id":"D-06","label":"HICP < 2.5% in 12m","question":"What is the probability, from 0 to 100, that euro area annual HICP inflation is below 2.5% twelve months from now?","kind":"prob","horizon_months":12,"consensus":72,"dispersion":3,"per_model":{"Claude Haiku 4.5":72,"Perplexity Sonar":75,"Claude Sonnet 4.5":72},"resolution_source":"Eurostat HICP flash"},{"question_id":"D-07","label":"Amsterdam stretch","question":"On a scale from 0 (deeply undervalued) to 100 (extreme bubble), how stretched are Amsterdam residential property valuations today? Answer with a single number.","kind":"scale","horizon_months":12,"consensus":72,"dispersion":1,"per_model":{"Claude Haiku 4.5":72,"Perplexity Sonar":72,"Claude Sonnet 4.5":73},"resolution_source":"judgment — tracked for drift, not resolved"},{"question_id":"D-08","label":"Munich stretch","question":"On a scale from 0 (deeply undervalued) to 100 (extreme bubble), how stretched are Munich residential property valuations today? Answer with a single number.","kind":"scale","horizon_months":12,"consensus":73,"dispersion":10,"per_model":{"Claude Haiku 4.5":72,"Perplexity Sonar":82,"Claude Sonnet 4.5":73},"resolution_source":"judgment — tracked for drift, not resolved"},{"question_id":"D-09","label":"National rent cap 12m","question":"What is the probability, from 0 to 100, that at least one EU member state introduces a NATIONAL (not municipal) hard rental cap within the next 12 months?","kind":"prob","horizon_months":12,"consensus":28,"dispersion":44,"per_model":{"Claude Haiku 4.5":28,"Perplexity Sonar":72,"Claude Sonnet 4.5":28},"resolution_source":"national legislation registers"},{"question_id":"D-10","label":"EU volumes 12m","question":"What is the probability, from 0 to 100, that EU residential property transaction volumes are higher over the next 12 months than over the previous 12?","kind":"prob","horizon_months":12,"consensus":35,"dispersion":33,"per_model":{"Claude Haiku 4.5":28,"Perplexity Sonar":61,"Claude Sonnet 4.5":35},"resolution_source":"Eurostat / national registries"},{"question_id":"D-11","label":"Mortgage rate Δ12m","question":"By how many percentage points do you expect the average euro area new-mortgage interest rate to change over the next 12 months? Answer with a single number (negative if you expect it to fall).","kind":"pct","horizon_months":12,"consensus":-0.75,"dispersion":0.3,"per_model":{"Claude Haiku 4.5":-0.75,"Perplexity Sonar":-0.5,"Claude Sonnet 4.5":-0.8},"resolution_source":"ECB MIR statistics"},{"question_id":"D-12","label":"DE REIT < 0.6x NAV","question":"What is the probability, from 0 to 100, that a major German listed residential REIT (Vonovia, LEG or TAG) trades below 0.6x price-to-NAV at any point within the next 12 months?","kind":"prob","horizon_months":12,"consensus":62,"dispersion":37,"per_model":{"Claude Haiku 4.5":72,"Perplexity Sonar":62,"Claude Sonnet 4.5":35},"resolution_source":"company reports / market data"}],"index_history":[{"date":"2026-06-12","consensus_index":52.6,"disagreement_index":19.3},{"date":"2026-06-11","consensus_index":52,"disagreement_index":15.6},{"date":"2026-06-10","consensus_index":53.3,"disagreement_index":19.9}],"methodology":"Fixed forward-judgment question set put daily to every panelist model with answer-only prompts; panelists never see each other's answers. Consensus = median; dispersion = max-min; Consensus Index = mean directional bullishness 0-100. Verbatim replies stored for audit. Questions carry horizons and public resolution sources for future accuracy scoring.","page_url":"https://avenaterminal.com/delphi","cite_as":"Avena DELPHI v1.0 (avenaterminal.com/delphi). DOI 10.5281/zenodo.19520064. CC BY 4.0."}