I spent three days building a tool that scores every new build on Spain's southern coast. Not vibes. Not agent recommendations. Actual data — price per m², rental yield, developer track record, beach proximity.
Here's what 1,867 properties told me.
Why new builds in 2026?
Three reasons I keep coming back to.
Planning backlogs across the costas mean supply is genuinely constrained. New builds on Airbnb consistently command 20–30% higher nightly rates than older stock. And coastal new builds appreciated 11–14% in 2024 alone — while most people were still asking whether Spain was "safe to invest in."
It's safe. The question is where.
The areas that actually score well
Costa Blanca South — Torrevieja, Orihuela Costa, Los Montesinos — keeps coming out on top for yield. Properties within 2km of the beach are hitting 6.8–8.2% gross. Price per m² is still 30–40% below Marbella. The buyers are Scandinavian, British, Dutch. Demand is sticky.
Costa Cálida surprised me. Mar Menor is chronically undervalued in the data. The lagoon climate stretches the rental season to 9+ months and yet prices per m² are running 15–25% below what the model thinks they're worth. That gap doesn't last forever.
Estepona on the Costa del Sol is doing something interesting. It's attracting Marbella money without Marbella prices. Golf resort and beachfront developments consistently scoring 80+ in the tool. If you have €400k–€800k to deploy, this is where I'd be looking.
What most buyers get wrong
They look at the asking price. Not the price per m².
A €250k apartment in Torrevieja can be a better buy than a €195k apartment in an inland town once you account for size, finishes and actual rental demand. The number that matters is what you're paying per square metre relative to what the market supports.
The other mistake is asking "can I rent it?" instead of "what's my cash-on-cash return after mortgage, fees and management?" The gap between a 5% and 7.5% yield on a €250k property is €6,250 a year. That's not a rounding error.
How the scoring works
Every property gets scored across five things: value vs market estimate, rental yield potential, location quality, developer track record, and downside risk. Anything above 75 is a strong buy signal. Below 40 means someone is paying for a postcode, not a property.
The model runs hedonic regression — same methodology institutional investors use, applied to 1,867 properties most people never see ranked side by side.
Where I'd put money right now
Costa Blanca South and Costa Cálida. Properties within 3km of the coast. Price range €180k–€350k. Established rental markets, strong northern European buyer demand, and still enough room for capital growth before the rest of the market catches up.
Costa del Sol if you have the capital and you're buying in the right developments. It's not cheap but the fundamentals are real.
The data is there. Most buyers just don't have access to it.
Scan all 1,867 properties on Avena Terminal →
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— Henrik, Avena team