Causal Intelligence
Understanding WHY markets move
6 macro-to-micro causal chains tracked. 4 active, 2 monitoring, 0 dormant. Updated 12 April 2026.
4
ACTIVE
2
MONITORING
0
DORMANT
ACTIVE CHAINS
ECB cuts rates below 2.5%
Cheaper mortgages reduce cost of financing
Demand for coastal new builds rises 8-15%
+8-15% demand uplift
26 weeks
88%
ECB rate at 2.40%, 6 consecutive cuts since Sep 2024
EUR/GBP drops below 0.86
Sterling strength benefits UK buyers
British buyer demand surges 10-20%
+10-20% British demand
12 weeks
82%
EUR/GBP at 0.856, below threshold
Spain tourism exceeds 90M visitors
Record tourism validates rental yield thesis
Investor demand increases 12-18%
+12-18% investor demand
16 weeks
79%
96M visitors in trailing 12 months
New supply growth exceeds 10% YoY
Pipeline expansion increases competition
Price growth moderates 2-4% in saturated zones
-2-4% price moderation
36 weeks
71%
New supply YoY at 12.4%
MONITORING
Construction cost inflation exceeds 5%
Margin compression forces developer discounts
Distressed pricing in 5-10% of pipeline
5-10% stress pricing
20 weeks
65%
Costs at +3.1% YoY, below threshold
Institutional funds allocate >EUR 2B to resi
Large capital compresses prime yields
Secondary towns appreciate 15-25%
+15-25% secondary locations
40 weeks
73%
Blackstone, Greystar active. BTR +30% YoY
METHODOLOGY
Each causal chain maps a macro trigger to a micro market effect through an identified transmission mechanism. Chains are classified as ACTIVE when trigger conditions are met, MONITORING when approaching thresholds, and DORMANT when inactive. Confidence scores reflect historical accuracy and the strength of the causal link. Lag periods indicate the typical delay between trigger activation and observable market effect.