Avena Terminal Research
The State of Spanish
New Build Market
Annual Report 2026
Henrik Kolstad, Avena Terminal
Published April 2026 · DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19520064
Dataset hash: 3d51a841627654e7...
1. Executive Summary
This report analyses 1,881active new build residential properties across Spain's three primary coastal markets: Costa Blanca, Costa Calida, and Costa del Sol. Data is sourced from direct developer listing feeds and scored using the Avena Investment Score — a five-factor hedonic pricing model weighting price vs market (40%), rental yield (25%), location quality (20%), build quality (10%), and completion risk (5%).
Key findings: The average new build is priced at €687,140 with a median of €468,500. Average gross rental yield stands at 3.7%. 151 properties (8.0%) score above 70/100, indicating strong investment potential. The top 100 scored deals average 28.4% below market value.
2. Key Metrics
3. Regional Analysis
| Region | Properties | Avg Score | Avg Yield | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Costa del Sol | 757 | 50 | 2% | 40% |
| Costa Blanca South | 468 | 50 | 5.1% | 25% |
| Costa Calida | 255 | 48 | 3.6% | 14% |
| Costa Blanca North | 229 | 51 | 5.2% | 12% |
| Costa Blanca South - Inland | 82 | 63 | 8% | 4% |
| Costa Calida - Inland | 43 | 47 | 3.2% | 2% |
| Costa del Sol (Cadiz) | 24 | 53 | 2.3% | 1% |
| Costa Blanca North - Inland | 13 | 55 | 7.6% | 1% |
| Costa Tropical | 7 | 48 | 2.6% | 0% |
| Costa del Sol - Inland | 3 | 32 | 2.3% | 0% |
4. Top 15 Towns by Investment Score
| # | Town | Properties | Avg Price | Yield | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benejúzar, Alicante | 2 | €178,410 | 9.7% | 73 |
| 2 | La Manga del Mar Menor, Murcia | 8 | €275,876 | 4.6% | 70 |
| 3 | La Romana, Alicante | 7 | €361,571 | 7.9% | 70 |
| 4 | Nerja, Málaga | 1 | €1,145,000 | 2% | 70 |
| 5 | Altea, Alicante | 3 | €2,261,667 | 4.1% | 69 |
| 6 | Cox, Alicante | 7 | €232,571 | 8.4% | 68 |
| 7 | Istán, Málaga | 2 | €600,000 | 2.3% | 67 |
| 8 | Los Nietos, Murcia | 1 | €374,900 | 2.7% | 67 |
| 9 | Formentera del Segura, Alicante | 1 | €399,000 | 8% | 67 |
| 10 | Santa Pola, Alicante | 9 | €344,182 | 4.4% | 65 |
| 11 | Jacarilla, Alicante | 4 | €252,625 | 9.4% | 65 |
| 12 | Rafal, Alicante | 1 | €415,000 | 7.7% | 65 |
| 13 | Los Urrutias, Murcia | 1 | €384,000 | 2.6% | 65 |
| 14 | Catral, Alicante | 7 | €207,571 | 7.6% | 64 |
| 15 | Torrox, Málaga | 7 | €348,143 | 2.3% | 64 |
5. Analysis by Property Type
| Type | Count | Avg Price | €/m² | Yield | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villa | 401 | €1,137,105 | €5,928 | 4.9% | 53 |
| Apartment | 783 | €497,585 | €5,769 | 3.1% | 49 |
| Penthouse | 358 | €739,148 | €7,730 | 2.9% | 53 |
| Townhouse | 169 | €657,403 | €5,038 | 4.9% | 53 |
| Bungalow | 166 | €425,044 | €4,921 | 4.1% | 40 |
6. Top 10 Towns by Rental Yield
| Town | Properties | Avg Price | Gross Yield | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacarilla, Alicante | 4 | €252,625 | 9.4% | 65 |
| Bigastro, Alicante | 5 | €198,140 | 8.5% | 60 |
| Penaguila, Alicante | 5 | €418,800 | 8.5% | 43 |
| Cox, Alicante | 7 | €232,571 | 8.4% | 68 |
| Pinoso, Alicante | 28 | €463,732 | 8.2% | 62 |
| La Romana, Alicante | 7 | €361,571 | 7.9% | 70 |
| Aspe, Alicante | 8 | €460,750 | 7.7% | 58 |
| La Manga Club, Murcia | 7 | €560,143 | 7.7% | 56 |
| Catral, Alicante | 7 | €207,571 | 7.6% | 64 |
| Los Montesinos, Alicante | 4 | €453,250 | 7.5% | 59 |
7. Scoring Methodology
The Avena Investment Score is a composite metric computed as a weighted linear combination of five orthogonal factor scores:
Where V = Price vs Market (discount coefficient at postal code granularity), Y = Rental Yield (bottom-up ADR model calibrated against AirDNA), L = Location Quality (beach proximity exponential decay + amenities), Q = Build Quality (energy rating + pool + parking), R = Completion Risk (developer tenure + delivery timeline). Full methodology available at avenaterminal.com/ontology.
8. Data Sources & References
Primary data: Direct developer listing feeds via Apinmo API. 1,881 properties, daily ingestion.
Rental estimates: AirDNA short-term rental data, segmented by type, beds, beach proximity, region.
Market reference: Postal-code-level transaction comparables for discount coefficient computation.
External references:
- Banco de España — Spanish central bank housing market statistics
- INE (Instituto Nacional de Estadística) — National statistics on housing prices and construction
- European Central Bank — Euro area residential property prices
- Registradores de España — Property registry transaction data
Citation
Kolstad, H. (2026). The State of Spanish New Build Market — Annual Report 2026.
Avena Terminal. https://avenaterminal.com/reports/annual-2026
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19520064 · License: CC BY 4.0