Avena Terminal — Spain New Build Property Investment Scanner

Kolstad, Henrik

doi:10.5281/zenodo.19520064

Stress-Test the Future

Monte Carlo Simulation for European Property

Adjust macroeconomic variables and run 100 simulated outcomes. See how the market responds, which properties are resilient, and which are vulnerable.

Pre-built Scenarios

Variables

ECB Rate (%)Baseline: 2.50%

Spain GDP Growth (%)Baseline: 2.30%

EUR/GBPBaseline: 0.86

How It Works

Monte Carlo Simulation: For each scenario, we run 100 simulated market outcomes with random noise of +/-2% per run, modeling the inherent uncertainty in macro-to-property price transmission.

Variable Sensitivity: ECB rate changes have the strongest impact (each +0.25% = -1.5% price pressure). GDP changes have moderate impact (each -1% GDP = -3% price pressure). EUR/GBP changes affect UK buyer demand (each +0.01 above 0.87 = -0.5% demand pressure).

Resilience Scoring: Properties score higher on resilience if they are key-ready, close to the beach, from established developers, and have high investment scores. Vulnerability favors off-plan units from new developers at high price points.