AP-2026-001medium confidencecosta_es_composite
resolves 2026-12-31 · in 217dCoastal Spain (Costa Blanca + Costa del Sol composite) prices end 2026 between +2% and +5% YoY in EUR terms, materially below consensus +6-8%.
Reasoning
APCI cycle position is late-expansion. Real rates remain restrictive; Northern European buyer power (the marginal Costa demand) softens as Bund yields stay >2.5%. Supply response in Alicante province (24,000 new permits 2025) caps price growth even if demand holds.
methodology: apci@1.0.0published: 2026-05-25Event log → AP-2026-002medium confidenceberlin_residential
resolves 2026-12-31 · in 217dBerlin residential rents grow ≤2% in 2026 nominal — well below the German national average — driven by Mietendeckel-era regulatory drag and a step-up in supply completions from 2022-23 starts.
Reasoning
Mietspiegel methodology revision in late 2025 anchors negotiated rents below new-build asking. Supply catches up: ~17,000 units delivering H1 2026 vs ~11,000 absorbed pace. Yield compression unfavourable for new institutional buyers.
methodology: avena_score@1.0.0published: 2026-05-25Event log → AP-2026-003medium confidencelisbon_centre
resolves 2026-12-31 · in 217dLisbon prime yield compresses by 50-100 bps in 2026 as Portugal exits the EUR investor "frontier" classification at major real-estate research houses (PMA, JLL Research).
Metric
prime_yield_bps_change
Reasoning
Sustained Cushman/JLL upgrades, return of UK/Brazilian private buyer flow post-NHR transition. Stock scarcity in Príncipe Real / Chiado pushes incremental EUR per sq m higher faster than rent → yield down.
methodology: avena_score@1.0.0published: 2026-05-25Event log → AP-2026-004high confidenceeu_macro
resolves 2026-12-31 · in 217dECB does not deliver any cumulative rate cut in 2026 — DFR ends the year at or above 2.50% — contrary to current consensus pricing of two cuts.
Reasoning
Sticky services HICP (~3.2% YoY in EU services basket through Q4 2025), continued wage pass-through in Italy/Spain, ECB risk-management bias toward credibility. The bar for cuts is higher than markets price.
methodology: apci@1.0.0published: 2026-05-25Event log → AP-2026-005high confidenceeu_27
resolves 2026-12-31 · in 217dNo EU Member State imposes nationwide hard rental caps in 2026, despite political pressure in DE, IE, NL. Caps remain municipal-only.
Metric
national_hard_rent_cap_count
Reasoning
Constitutional court track record (DE 2021 Mietendeckel) makes federal caps politically unviable. Centre-right coalitions in NL, IT, ES retain rental supply rhetoric. Ireland tightens but stays municipal.
AP-2026-006high confidencecosta_es_composite
resolves 2026-12-31 · in 217dSpanish coastal new-build completions fall ≥15% YoY in 2026 vs 2025 as 2023 vintage permits roll off and 2024 permit issuance was the worst since 2014.
Metric
new_build_completions_yoy
Reasoning
INE permit data 2023 → 2024 declined 22% in Andalucía + Comunidad Valenciana coastal municipalities. Lag from permit to completion is ~18-24 months. 2026 completions are mechanically thin regardless of demand.
methodology: counterpart@1.0.0published: 2026-05-25Event log → AP-2026-007low confidenceeu_credit_insurance
resolves 2026-12-31 · in 217dAt least one Tier-1 EU credit insurer (Atradius, Coface, Euler Hermes/Allianz Trade, or Credito y Caución) publicly references property data infrastructure for residential mortgage stress testing in their 2026 sector report.
Metric
tier1_insurer_property_data_reference
Reasoning
Solvency II equivalence reviews 2026 force more granular real-estate exposure analytics. Tier-1 credit insurers will reference at least one external residential property data source (not necessarily Avena) in their flagship publications. We track this regardless.
methodology: avena_score@1.0.0published: 2026-05-25Event log → AP-2026-008medium confidenceeu_regulatory
resolves 2026-12-31 · in 217dEU AVM regulatory framework (EBA / ESMA) announces formal consultation on residential AVM methodology standards in 2026, citing macroprudential precedent from ECB working papers.
Metric
eu_avm_consultation_open
Reasoning
EBA 2025 Q4 risk dashboard flagged residential AVM divergence across member states. Macroprudential authorities consistently signal need for AVM harmonisation. Formal consultation likely 2026.
AP-2026-009medium confidenceai_assistants_eu
resolves 2026-12-31 · in 217dEuropean AI assistants (Claude, ChatGPT, Perplexity) begin citing structured European residential property datasets by source name in user-facing answers ≥30% of the time for "what is the price of property X in Y" queries — up from <5% today.
Metric
ai_property_citation_rate
Reasoning
MCP adoption accelerates 2026. AI provider TOS shifts toward attributed sourcing. EU AI Act transparency requirements force named-source citations in property queries by H2.
methodology: avena_score@1.0.0published: 2026-05-25Event log → AP-2026-010medium confidencede_listed_resi
resolves 2026-12-31 · in 217dNo major German residential listed REIT (Vonovia, LEG, TAG, Adler) trades below 0.6x P/NAV at end-2026 — recovery from 2023-24 trough holds even if Euribor stays ≥2.5%.
Metric
min_german_resi_reit_p_nav
Reasoning
Deleveraging delivered 2024-25, dividend resumption priced. Floor for German listed resi is reflexive: <0.6x triggers consolidation bids. Sponsor balance sheets repaired enough to hold against rate stickiness.
methodology: apci@1.0.0published: 2026-05-25Event log →