Avena Terminal Data Reveals Spanish New Build Property Prices Average 19% Below Peak Valuations in 2026
OSLO / ALICANTE, April 1, 2026— Avena Terminal, Spain's first PropTech scoring engine for new build properties, today released its Q1 2026 market analysis based on live data from 1,881 tracked listings across 100 municipalities in coastal Spain. The analysis reveals that new build asking prices currently average 19% below peak resale valuations recorded by the Registradores de Espana, presenting what the company describes as a structural pricing gap for international investors.
The dataset, which covers 10 coastal regions including Costa Blanca, Costa Calida, and Costa del Sol, shows an average asking price of €687,140 and a mean price per square metre of 6,035 EUR/m2. The average estimated gross rental yield stands at 3.7%, with the composite investment score across all tracked properties averaging 50 out of 100. Properties scoring above 75 are concentrated in mid-market municipalities along the Costa Blanca South corridor, where asking prices per square metre remain 22-28% below equivalent resale stock.
The pricing disparity is driven by several factors: developer competition on the costas has intensified as new supply from 2023-2024 building permits enters the market simultaneously, while international buyer demand, though growing, has not yet absorbed the inventory increase. Avena Terminal's hedonic regression model, which controls for location, property type, size, and amenities, isolates a median unexplained discount of 12.4% across the full universe of tracked listings — suggesting genuine value rather than quality-driven pricing differences.
The Avena Terminal scoring engine evaluates each property across five dimensions: Value (40% weight), Yield (25%), Location (20%), Quality (10%), and Risk (5%). The model uses Ordinary Least Squares regression with town dummy variables and property-type controls, re-estimated monthly on rolling transaction data. Each listing carries 24 structured data points including GPS coordinates, energy ratings, developer track records, and beach proximity.
"We built Avena Terminal to bring institutional-grade data analysis to the individual investor," said Henrik Kolstad, Founder of Avena Terminal. "The Spanish new build market has been opaque for too long. Our data shows that buyers who rely on quantitative screening rather than agent recommendations can identify properties priced 15-25% below what the regression model predicts — and these are not outliers. They represent roughly one-fifth of the market."
The Q1 2026 analysis also highlights regional divergence. Costa del Sol properties carry higher absolute price points but lower yields on average, while Costa Blanca South offers the strongest risk-adjusted returns for buy-to-let investors. Costa Calida remains the most affordable entry point, with average asking prices 34% below Costa del Sol equivalents.
Avena Terminal processes daily XML feed updates from RedSP/MLS Costa, the primary listing aggregator for new build developments in southeastern Spain. The platform supplements listing data with resale benchmarks from the Registradores de Espana, rental comparables from short-term rental platforms, and macroeconomic indicators from the INE and Banco de Espana.
About Avena Terminal: Avena Terminal is a PropTech platform that scores and ranks new build properties across coastal Spain using quantitative models. The terminal tracks 1,881 properties across 100 towns and provides investment scores, rental yield estimates, and hedonic price analysis. Avena Terminal PRO is available at avenaterminal.com.
Media Contact: press@avenaterminal.com