Avena Investment Memo · M-RACFJ2BK
Marbella beachfront villas €1.5M–€3M with gross yield above 5% for a 36-month hold
PASS· conf 65
Generated 2026-06-10 09:56 UTC · 0 candidates · claude-sonnet-4-5§00 · Executive Summary
Thesis: "Marbella beachfront villas €1.5M–€3M with gross yield above 5% for a 36-month hold". 0 candidates identified within the requested universe, ranked by Avena Score weighted by underpricing. Average underprice vs market reference: 0.0%; average gross yield: 0.0%. Recommendation: PASS.
Universe · Top 0 ranked by Avena Score × underpricing
§01 · Investment Thesis
Investment Thesis
Client thesis: "Marbella beachfront villas €1.5M–€3M with gross yield above 5% for a 36-month hold". No matching universe.
§02 · Universe & Selection
Universe & Selection
Filter applied: {"region":"costa-del-sol","type":"Villa","min_price":1500000,"max_price":3000000,"min_yield":5,"min_score":null,"min_beds":null,"max_beach_km":0,"horizon_months":36,"status":null}. Universe selected from the Avena scored corpus; ranked by Avena Score + 50% weighted underprice premium.
§03 · Valuation Analysis
Valuation Analysis
Underpricing measured against hedonic OLS market reference (mm² field). Universe average: 0.0% below.
§04 · Yield Projection
Yield Projection
Bottom-up ADR model. Universe average gross yield: 0.0%. Net yield typically 65-75% of gross after costs.
§05 · Counterpart Risk
Counterpart Risk
Counterpart ratings unavailable for this universe.
§06 · Macro Context
Macro Context
ECB main refi rate at 2.40% (falling). Spain HICP at 2.80% YoY. Mortgage approvals +8.3% YoY. Foreign buyer share 19.3% and rising. Macro backdrop is supportive.
§07 · Scenario Stress Test
Scenario Stress Test
Bull: +12-14% over 24mo if ECB cuts continue. Base: +6-8%. Bear: -3-5% if regulatory shock or rate reversal.
§08 · Comparable Transactions
Comparable Transactions
Notarial transaction data lagged 60-90 days. Live comps tracked in Avena registry.
§09 · Position Sizing
Position Sizing
Recommended allocation: equal-weight across top 0 candidates as a starter book.
§10 · Exit Strategy
Exit Strategy
Hold 36 months. Exit triggers: 15% MTM gain or regime shift to BEAR.