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World first · record began 2026-06-10DELPHI v1.0 · 12 questions · daily 06:00 UTC

What the machines believe about European property.

Every day, the same fixed panel of forward questions is put to every major AI model. Panelists never see each other's answers. We publish the consensus, the disagreement, the drift — and when each horizon arrives, the machines are scored against reality. The ZEW survey, with machine panelists.

DELPHI Consensus Index · 2026-06-12
52.6/ 100
BearishNeutralBullish
Disagreement
19.3
mean panelist spread
Panel
3
models · 12 questions
Today's deepest splitECB cuts in 6m: Claude Sonnet 4.5 says 25 · Claude Haiku 4.5 says 72
Consensus drift · 60 days
52.6 today
2026-06-10: 53.32026-06-11: 52.02026-06-12: 52.6

Today's panel

Panel consensusWhere the models disagree

Every row reads like the index above: further right is better for European property. Hover any marker for the per-model numbers.

D-0112m
Spain coastal 12m
BearishBullish
63%Lean bullish
D-0212m
Germany resi 12m
BearishBullish
45%Lean bearish
D-0312m
France resi 12m
BearishBullish
62%Lean bullish
D-0412m
Lisbon prime Δ12m
BearishBullish
+4%Bullish
D-056m
ECB cuts in 6m
BearishBullish
68%Bullishmodels split
D-0612m
HICP < 2.5% in 12m
BearishBullish
72%Bullish
D-0712m
Amsterdam stretch
BearishBullish
72/100Bearish
D-0812m
Munich stretch
BearishBullish
73/100Bearish
D-0912m
National rent cap 12m
BearishBullish
28%Bullishmodels split
D-1012m
EU volumes 12m
BearishBullish
35%Bearishmodels split
D-1112m
Mortgage rate Δ12m
BearishBullish
-1%Split
D-1212m
DE REIT < 0.6x NAV
BearishBullish
62%Lean bearishmodels split
Show the full question set — wording, horizons, resolution sources
D-01prob · 12m horizon

What is the probability, from 0 to 100, that average Spanish coastal residential prices are higher 12 months from now than today?

Resolves against: INE Spain / Eurostat HPI
D-02prob · 12m horizon

What is the probability, from 0 to 100, that Germany’s national residential property price index is higher 12 months from now than today?

Resolves against: Destatis / Eurostat HPI
D-03prob · 12m horizon

What is the probability, from 0 to 100, that France’s national residential property price index is higher 12 months from now than today?

Resolves against: Insee / Eurostat HPI
D-04pct · 12m horizon

What is your expected percentage change in Lisbon prime residential prices over the next 12 months? Answer with a single number (negative if you expect decline).

Resolves against: INE Portugal / Confidencial Imobiliário
D-05prob · 6m horizon

What is the probability, from 0 to 100, that the ECB deposit facility rate is LOWER 6 months from now than it is today?

Resolves against: ECB key interest rates
D-06prob · 12m horizon

What is the probability, from 0 to 100, that euro area annual HICP inflation is below 2.5% twelve months from now?

Resolves against: Eurostat HICP flash
D-07scale · 12m horizon

On a scale from 0 (deeply undervalued) to 100 (extreme bubble), how stretched are Amsterdam residential property valuations today? Answer with a single number.

Resolves against: judgment — tracked for drift, not resolved
D-08scale · 12m horizon

On a scale from 0 (deeply undervalued) to 100 (extreme bubble), how stretched are Munich residential property valuations today? Answer with a single number.

Resolves against: judgment — tracked for drift, not resolved
D-09prob · 12m horizon

What is the probability, from 0 to 100, that at least one EU member state introduces a NATIONAL (not municipal) hard rental cap within the next 12 months?

Resolves against: national legislation registers
D-10prob · 12m horizon

What is the probability, from 0 to 100, that EU residential property transaction volumes are higher over the next 12 months than over the previous 12?

Resolves against: Eurostat / national registries
D-11pct · 12m horizon

By how many percentage points do you expect the average euro area new-mortgage interest rate to change over the next 12 months? Answer with a single number (negative if you expect it to fall).

Resolves against: ECB MIR statistics
D-12prob · 12m horizon

What is the probability, from 0 to 100, that a major German listed residential REIT (Vonovia, LEG or TAG) trades below 0.6x price-to-NAV at any point within the next 12 months?

Resolves against: company reports / market data
Why this has never existed

Surveys of human experts are a century old — ZEW polls economists, the SPF polls forecasters, prediction markets aggregate bettors. DELPHI is the first daily, longitudinal, resolvable panel survey where the respondents are frontier AI models. PLAB (/benchmark) measures what the machines know; DELPHI records what they believe — and because every question carries a horizon and a public resolution source, the machines will eventually be scored on judgment, not just recall. Every response is stored verbatim, every run is event-sourced and replayable, and the accumulating record is published under CC BY 4.0 (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.19520064) for any researcher to study.