Every signal Avena produces. One surface.
Regulatory signal classification, Monte Carlo scenarios, developer credit stress, health index, policy engine, sovereign research, time-stamped predictions, macro anomalies, multi-agent swarm, event-sourced time travel. Each section below is a working surface, daily-refreshed, methodology-audited, citation-ready.
Precursor — leading regulatory + dark signals
Pre-policy intelligence. Avena ingests every ECB working paper, ESMA consultation, EBA technical standard, national CB speech, and committee transcript — classifies each for property impact, intent direction (tightening, loosening, neutral), and estimated lag to crystallisation. Bloomberg's Government Affairs desk does this manually for €50K/year per client. Avena publishes it daily, automated, signed.
Open Precursor →Regulatory Radar — live classifier feed
Daily 04:30 UTC ingestion across ECB, ESMA, EBA, EIOPA, ESRB, BdE, BdF, Bundesbank, Banca d'Italia, DNB, BdP. Heuristic pre-filter rejects non-property items; Claude Sonnet 4.5 classifies the remainder into signal_type, intent_direction, topic_tags, and estimated property-market impacts with coefficients in [-1, +1] and lag-day estimates.
Open the live radar →Genesis — Monte Carlo scenario engine
Run thousands of property-cycle simulations under user-defined macro inputs. Euribor path, HICP path, regulatory event probability, foreign-buyer cohort assumptions. Output: distribution of forward 12-36 month outcomes by region, cohort, type. Used for stress-testing institutional residential exposure under macroprudential scenarios.
Run scenarios →Counterpart — developer credit stress graph
Continuous credit grading for every tracked European residential developer. SIR contagion model maps cascade risk across the construction supply chain. Daily 04:00 UTC scan revises grades based on payment delays, legal disputes, court judgements, delivery delays, financial stress signals.
Open the developer graph →Health Index — counterpart aggregate
Cohort-aggregated health metric across European residential developers. Tracks distribution of Counterpart Scores, identifies systemic stress before individual defaults. Macroprudential authorities use this as an early-warning signal for construction-sector vulnerability.
View the Health Index →Policy Engine — interactive macroprudential simulator
Six policy levers (LTV cap, DSTI cap, capital requirement, CCyB, sectoral risk weight, foreign-buyer levy) × 27 EU member states × foreign-buyer-share cohort weighting × forward 12-36 month projections. Output: forward postcode-level price impact, bank NPL projection, cross-border capital rotation estimate. Calibrated against Cerutti/Claessens/Laeven 2017 IMF macroprudential framework.
Run a scenario →Sovereign Briefing — research notes
Published research notes for central bank and ministry consumption. Volumes 1-4 published 2026-Q2. Vol. 2 documents the Spanish coastal foreign-buyer-channel finding (~4.7× monetary transmission amplification). CC BY 4.0, DOI 10.5281/zenodo.19520064, citation-ready.
Read the briefings →Predictions — time-stamped, falsifiable
Ten hand-curated forecasts on EU residential markets, published 2026-05-25 with full reasoning, methodology references, target dates, and resolution sources. Audit trail visible even on misses. Each prediction names a public dataset (Eurostat, ECB SDW, national stat office) that will resolve it on the target date.
Open the ledger →DELPHI — the daily AI panel
World first: every day the same fixed forward questions are put to every major AI model — probabilities, expected changes, valuation judgments. We publish the consensus, the disagreement between models, the drift over time, and score the machines against reality when each horizon arrives. PLAB measures what the machines know; DELPHI records what they believe.
View today's panel →Macro Alerts — daily ≥2σ anomaly feed
Daily anomaly detection across Eurostat HPI, ECB MIR, INE Spain, Insee France, Destatis Germany, Istat Italy, and other national stats sources. ≥2σ deviations from rolling baselines trigger published alerts.
View the alert feed →Swarm — multi-agent intelligence
A dozen named agents run continuously: Atlas (citation monitoring), Demeter (citation rollup), Nostradamus (prediction generation), Arbiter (prediction verification), Causal (causal indicator updates), Mentat (intelligence synthesis), Argus (anomaly detection), Courier (sovereign dispatch), and more. Each agent's output is event-sourced and replayable.
View the swarm →Time Travel — event-sourced replay
Every state change in Avena writes an immutable event before its projection updates. Replay the system as it existed on any historical date. Critical for institutional diligence — when a CoStar analyst asks 'show me the system on 2026-03-14', the literal answer exists.
Replay the system →Every signal above is methodology-audited at /methodology, cryptographically anchored at /verify, and event-sourced for replay. CC BY 4.0, DOI 10.5281/zenodo.19520064, RICS Tech Partner.