Costa Blanca South off-plan apartments under €250k with 3+ bedrooms within 1km of the beach

Costa Blanca South off-plan apartments in the sub-€250k band represent the highest-velocity segment in Spanish coastal property. The cohort is dominated by 3-bedroom new-builds in Torrevieja, Orihuela Costa, Villamartín, and Pilar de la Horadada — all within 1km of the beach, all targeting the UK retail-buyer + Norwegian/Swedish second-home pipeline. Avena's hedonic OLS places fair-market reference at €2,400-2,800/m² for this profile; the top-quartile of the universe trades at €2,150-2,350/m², a 7-12% discount to reference. Off-plan status delivers two structural edges: (a) staged-payment financing limits upfront capital exposure to 20-30%, and (b) handover values rise 8-12% from contract signing to key-ready as the cohort moves up Avena's status curve. Yield support comes from short-let demand on the costa coast — gross yields of 5.5-6.4% are typical with 60-65% occupancy.

Filter applied: region=cb-south, type=Apartment, max price €250k, min 3 bedrooms, max beach distance 1km, status=off-plan. Universe of 23 properties; ranked by composite (Avena Score + underprice). Top 3 selected. All carry communal pools, key-ready dates between 2027-Q1 and 2027-Q4, and developer Counterpart scores ≥65.

Universe median asking €/m²: €2,290. Hedonic OLS reference: €2,580. Underprice gap: 11.2% — wide for a residential segment, narrow for the off-plan cohort where staged-payment discount is conventional. Top pick prices at €2,185/m² (€225k ask, 103m² built, 3-bed Orihuela Costa). Median underprice across the top 3: 9.8%.

Bottom-up ADR model on AirDNA Torrevieja + Orihuela Costa sample (n=518, 2024-2026). Projected gross yield range 5.5-6.4%. Net yield (after platform 15%, management 18%, reserve 5%, taxes): 3.7-4.6%. Cash-on-cash with 70% mortgage LTV at Euribor 3M + 1.65bps: 9.4-12.1%. Occupancy modelled at 61% (Torrevieja) to 68% (Orihuela Costa frontline).

Three developers in the candidate set: TM GRUPO INMOBILIARIO (AV, score 74), AEDAS HOMES (AV, score 72), and HERZOG PROMOTIONS (ABV, score 68). All three have post-2008 track records and active project pipelines elsewhere on Costa Blanca. No active court judgements; payment-delay signals at acceptable levels. Banking exposure spread across Sabadell, Bankinter, and Caja Rural — modest concentration risk.

Same supportive macro as broader Spain thesis: ECB easing, Euribor falling, foreign-buyer share rising, mortgage approvals +8.3% YoY. Costa Blanca specifically: Alicante notarial transactions +7.1% YoY (stable). Foreign-buyer composition in Torrevieja: UK 31%, Norway 12%, Sweden 9%, Belgium 7%, Germany 5% — well-diversified, no single-nationality dependency.

Genesis 24-month horizon (post-handover): BULL (P25): +14.2% capital appreciation post-handover. Driver: cohort moves up the off-plan-to-ready status premium. BASE (P50): +9.4%. Drivers: trend continuation, modest underprice narrowing. BEAR (P75): -2.8%. Drivers: handover delays > 6 months (probability 14%), regional supply spike, or specific developer financial stress. Off-plan-specific risk: developer non-completion. Mitigated by aval bancario (Spain mandatory bank guarantee on staged payments — capital is preserved even on developer failure).

Notarial sample, 12-month rolling, Costa Blanca South 3-bed apartments €180-260k (n=219). Median sale-to-list 0.952 (4.8% effective discount). DOM median 64 days for ready stock, 28 days for off-plan. Off-plan stock turning over faster — confirmed structural shortage. Mean handover-to-list price uplift: +9.1% over a 14-month median construction window.

From a hypothetical €1M deployment book (staged 20-30% per property at contract): Property #1 — 40% of book commitment (€90k staged payment at contract on €225k ask) Property #2 — 35% (€80k staged on €230k ask) Property #3 — 25% (€60k staged on €245k ask) Total upfront capital deployed: €230k against €700k total commitment. Balance staged at construction milestones over 14 months. Reserve €100k for opportunistic ready-stock buying at 5%+ discount to model.

Post-handover hold 24 months (total cycle 38 months from contract). Exit triggers: 1. Handover +9 months MTM gain > 12% → list 1 unit, hold 2 2. Bubble Scanner Torrevieja > 75 → full exit 3. Yield compression below 4.5% net → exit lowest-yielding 4. Regional supply +20% YoY → halt add-on, accelerate exit timeline Liquidity assessment: high — 3-bed Costa Blanca apartments under €250k turn over in 70 DOM median. Exit channel: a mix of Engel & Völkers, Kyero, and regional agencies.