All signals
PRC-2026-002regulatory bearish
Spain raises Golden Visa property threshold to €1M
The Spanish government has tabled draft legislation raising the property purchase requirement for Golden Visa eligibility from €500k to €1M, with grandfathering for applications submitted before 31 December 2026. Expected to pass by Q1 2027.
Confidence
89%
Magnitude
significant 7-15%
Historical impact
-8.4%
Time lag
9 mo
Current APCI
64.1
Projected low
56.0
Projected high
60.5
Sample size
6
Avena analysis.
Direct historical comparable: Portugal raised the property minimum on Golden Visa in 2022, then eliminated property route entirely in 2023. Coastal Portuguese sub-€500k markets dropped 8-12% within 9 months. The Spanish €500k-€1M segment is particularly exposed — these buyers will not upgrade to €1M+ properties. Expect a 6-month rush in late 2026 (positive demand spike) followed by sustained pressure on the sub-€1M coastal segment through 2027.
Affected markets.
Costa BlancaCosta del SolBalearicsMadrid
Detected 21 May 2026 · Tracking until 12 Feb 2027· CC BY 4.0