All signals
PRC-2026-005regulatory bearish

EU Mortgage Directive revision tightens non-resident LTV caps

European Banking Authority has proposed revisions to the Mortgage Credit Directive limiting non-resident LTV ratios to 60% (currently 65-75% depending on member state). Draft proposes Q3 2027 implementation. Affects all 27 EU member states.

Confidence
83%
Magnitude
moderate 3-7%
Historical impact
-5.2%
Time lag
15 mo
Current APCI
64.0
Projected low
58.5
Projected high
62.5
Sample size
8

Avena analysis.

Non-resident buyers using leverage will require larger down payments — typical international buyer using 70% LTV would need to inject an additional 10% of property value or step down to smaller property. Historical comparables (Spain LTV tightening 2013, Cyprus LTV adjustment 2018) produced 4-7% pricing pressure on coastal markets within 12-18 months. Coastal/holiday-home markets disproportionately affected as they have higher non-resident LTV usage than urban markets. Cash buyers and equity-rich downsizers from Northern Europe partially offset the impact.

Affected markets.

Costa BlancaCosta del SolAlgarveFrench RivieraItalian RivieraMallorca

Detected 21 May 2026 · Tracking until 01 Sept 2027· CC BY 4.0