All signals
PRC-2026-07-REG-787regulatory bearish

France finalizes draft law mandating EPC rating C minimum for all rental properties by 2028

The French National Assembly's Commission on Sustainable Development published draft amendments to the Climate & Resilience Law requiring all residential rental properties to achieve Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) rating C or higher by January 2028, expanding from the current G-F phase-out. An estimated 4.8 million rental units (42% of stock) currently fall below this threshold. The Economy Ministry estimates retrofit costs of €25,000-€45,000 per unit with limited subsidy availability for non-primary residence owners.

Confidence
82%
Magnitude
significant 7-15%
Historical impact
-8.3%
Time lag
6 mo
Current APCI
68.2
Projected low
59.8
Projected high
63.5
Sample size
4

Avena analysis.

Historical EPC mandate escalations in the Netherlands (2019 label C requirement) triggered 11% valuation declines for non-compliant rental stock within 14 months, while Scotland's 2022 EPC-C standard for private rentals caused 6.2% price compression in affected segments. France's 2023 G-rated rental ban already produced localized 4-7% discounts in Paris arrondissements with older housing stock. The 2028 C-rating threshold affects a dramatically larger pool, with retrofit economics particularly punitive for investors in secondary coastal markets where yields are compressed and pre-1975 construction dominates. Falsifiability: signal invalidated if final legislation includes substantial state subsidy programs covering >40% of retrofit costs for rental property owners, or if implementation deadline extended beyond 2030.

Affected markets.

ParisFrench RivieraLyonBordeauxMarseille

Detected 02 Jul 2026 · Tracking until 24 Dec 2027· CC BY 4.0