Every weight, every revision, in public.
Static methodologies are a credibility ceiling. Most index providers chose their weights once and never revisit. We publish every version of every methodology Avena has ever shipped — weights, rationale, derivation method, activation date — with the prior version linked. Competitors look frozen. We visibly learn.
Note: weight changes in v1 are gated on human review. Autonomous weekly recalibration is wired but not enabled until we accumulate ≥10k labelled out-of-sample resolutions — chasing noise on a small sample would produce embarrassing oscillations.
Avena Property Cycle Index
Avena Property Cycle Index — composite of five sub-signals from the BIS residential property cycle literature and the ESRB anti-cyclical buffer framework.
View weights JSON
{
"policy_risk": 0.1,
"price_velocity": 0.3,
"supply_response": 0.2,
"rate_sensitivity": 0.15,
"yield_compression": 0.25
}v1.0 launched 2026-05.
Avena Score
Initial published weights. Derived manually from comparison against IPD residential index methodology and IMF Working Paper 19/258.
View weights JSON
{
"risk": 0.05,
"value": 0.4,
"yield": 0.25,
"quality": 0.1,
"location": 0.2
}Frozen at launch (2026-05). All subsequent revisions must be documented here.
Automated Valuation Model
AVM — town × type median €/m² base with multiplicative adjustments. ±3% RMSE on Spanish coastal backtest.
View weights JSON
{
"energy_band": 0.08,
"size_adjust": 0.15,
"town_median": 0.55,
"view_premium": 0.1,
"beach_distance": 0.07,
"amenity_pool_golf": 0.05
}v1.0 launched 2026-05.
Counterpart Score
Counterpart Score — developer credit grade. Weights derived from a manual review of factors predicting Spanish promoter insolvency 2008-2015.
View weights JSON
{
"payment_delay": 0.3,
"delivery_delay": 0.15,
"legal_disputes": 0.2,
"court_judgements": 0.2,
"financial_stress": 0.15
}v1.0 launched 2026-05.
Regulatory Radar Classifier
Regulatory Radar classifier — Claude Sonnet 4.5 + keyword pre-filter + confidence floor 0.30.
View weights JSON
{
"model": "claude-sonnet-4-5",
"pre_filter": "keyword",
"confidence_floor": 0.3
}v1.0 launched alongside Commitment 8.
Score Confidence (adversarial)
Adversarial confidence layer — deterministic v1 heuristic. Penalises edge-case properties. v2 will swap in a trained residual model.
View weights JSON
{
"score_edge": "additive",
"comp_sparsity": "additive",
"missing_inputs": "additive",
"extreme_price_m2": "additive"
}v1.0 launched alongside Commitment 5.
New versions are proposed when prediction_outcomes show systematic bias (mean error > 1σ from zero across ≥1,000 resolutions). Proposed versions A/B test against the active version for 7 days. Activation requires statistically significant improvement (p < 0.05) on out-of-sample data and explicit human sign-off. Methodology fingerprints (SHA-256 of the weights JSON) are committed daily to the verifiable digest at /verify.