Public track record · No cherry-picking

Every call.
Every outcome.

Most research shops publish the hits and bury the misses. We publish both. Hit rate is computed from resolvedpredictions only — active forecasts don't count until the horizon expires.

Track record · updated
Ledger initialising · No published predictions yet
The first call lands on the next prediction cycle.

Predictions publish at the close of each weekly cycle with a stated horizon (30 / 90 / 180 days). The ledger displays every call, resolved or pending — no cherry-picking, no quiet deletion of misses. Methodology at /methodology.

Resolved predictions.

No resolved predictions yet. Each call publishes with a 30-, 90-, or 180-day horizon — outcomes resolve when the horizon expires and verification can be made against observed data.

Read prediction methodology →

Methodology: predictions resolve when horizon expires. Outcome set by Agent Arbiter (verification engine) against source-of-truth data — ECB statistics, Eurostat, INE, Banco de España. No human override.

Full verification methodology →