What the score said.
What asking prices did next.
Listings are split once, on the first stored score day of the live ledger. Flagged means the stored score was at or above that day's 75th percentile, ties included. The outcome is the asking price on the latest snapshot, or a departure from the feed.
2026-08-05 to 2026-10-29. 85 days. Cohort of 1 982. Threshold 64.
Median asking-price change from 2026-08-05 to 2026-10-29 was 0.00% in the flagged group (463 paired listings) and 0.00% in the rest (1256 paired). A median of zero means at least half of the paired listings in each group were unchanged.
- The window is 85 days. A comparison this page is willing to call anything other than illustrative would need at least 180 days, and even then it would still be asking prices rather than registered sales. This page has no stronger label.
- Inside the window, 7 calendar days have no price snapshot. Listings were not observed on those days.
- Score rows dated before the 2026-08-21 scribe correction can describe the previous day's book. Entry and exit prices here are taken from price_snapshots on the named dates, not from the price stored on the score row.
- A feed exit is a listing that left Avena's captured book. It is not a registered sale, and a return to the book is counted as a relisting.
- The score's largest term is the gap between asking €/m² and an in-book benchmark. It is not an out-of-sample forecast of a transaction price.
The two groups
| Measure | Flagged | Rest of book |
|---|---|---|
| Listings on the cohort day | 516 | 1 466 |
| With an entry asking price | 516 | 1 466 |
| Paired to the latest price | 463 | 1 256 |
| Median asking-price change | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Cut by 1% or more | 27 (5.8%) | 123 (9.8%) |
| Raised by 1% or more | 102 (22.0%) | 228 (18.2%) |
| Inside 1% | 334 (72.1%) | 905 (72.1%) |
| Left the latest book | 53 (10.3%) | 210 (14.3%) |
| Of which, recorded delisting | 51 | 203 |
| Left with no delisting row | 2 | 7 |
| Delisted, then back in the book | 14 | 28 |
Cut, raise and flat shares use the paired listings as the denominator. The left-the-book share uses the cohort count. A share is left blank when its denominator is zero.
What is not on this page
The predictions table holds 30 rows. This page does not score them, because a hit rate needs a published resolution rule this ledger does not apply.
Scores and snapshots before 2026-08-05 are excluded (191 862 earlier score rows, 1 881 earlier snapshot rows). That archive repeated a frozen registry and would invent a longer history.
There is no registered sale price in the comparison. A fund reading this as evidence that the score predicts transaction outcomes would be reading past the data.