A
AvenaTerminal · Est. 2026
Architectural Commitment 02 · Causal Dependency Graph

What depends on what, with coefficients.

Most data vendors hide the wiring. We publish it. Every node — macro indicator, regulation, methodology, region, product — declares its upstream dependencies with a signed coefficient and a typical propagation lag. When Euribor moves 25bp, you can read this graph and trace which products will reprice within seven days versus which take six months.

MacroRegulationMethodologyRegionProducteuribor_3m → meth_avena_score coef -0.35, lag 30d Higher funding cost compresses affordability and value sub-score.euribor_3m → meth_avm coef -0.25, lag 60d Higher EURIBOR shrinks bid envelope; AVM medians retrace 60-90d after rate moves.euribor_3m → meth_apci coef -0.3, lag 45d Cycle position deteriorates as funding tightens.ecb_dfr → euribor_3m coef 0.85, lag 5d DFR is the curve anchor; passes through to 3M EURIBOR almost immediately.eur_hicp → ecb_dfr coef 0.6, lag 90d ECB reaction function: HICP > target → DFR hikes.ez_unemployment → meth_counterpart coef -0.2, lag 90d Higher unemployment raises developer default tail.reg_macroprudential → meth_apci coef -0.2, lag 180d Tightening macroprudential measures cool the cycle.reg_rental_caps → meth_avena_score coef -0.15, lag 120d Rental caps depress yield sub-score in affected regions.reg_epbd → meth_avena_score coef -0.1, lag 365d Older stock penalised on quality sub-score as renovation deadlines approach.meth_avena_score → region_es_coast coef 0.5, lag 1d Scores roll up into the regional Avena Index.meth_avena_score → region_de_resi coef 0.5, lag 1d Same for DE residential.meth_avena_score → region_pt_resi coef 0.5, lag 1d Same for PT residential.meth_avm → region_es_coast coef 0.4, lag 1d AVM medians anchor regional valuations.meth_counterpart → region_es_coast coef 0.25, lag 7d Distressed developers depress regional supply confidence.meth_confidence → meth_avena_score coef 0.3, lag 0d Adversarial residual layer modulates downstream score reliability.meth_avm → product_bank coef 0.9, lag 0d Bank Stress API consumes the AVM directly.meth_avm → product_oracle coef 0.85, lag 0d Property Oracle wraps AVM for on-chain RWA pricing.meth_avena_score → product_csrd coef 0.7, lag 0d CSRD disclosure pulls quality + risk sub-scores.meth_apci → product_derivs coef 0.75, lag 0d Derivative pricing uses APCI cycle position.meth_counterpart → product_csrd coef 0.3, lag 0d Counterpart grade feeds developer-risk disclosure.Euribor 3M Three-month EURIBOR — primary mortgage funding cost.Euribor 3MECB Deposit Facility Rate Anchors the short end of the EUR curve.ECB Deposit Faci…EUR HICP inflation Drives real rates and ECB stance.EUR HICP inflationEZ unemployment Household credit capacity and rental demand.EZ unemploymentMacroprudential measures LTV/DSTI caps, countercyclical buffers, EBA technical standards.Macroprudential …Rental regulation National rental caps, indexation rules, eviction moratoria.Rental regulationEPBD energy mandates Mandatory renovation thresholds for older stock.EPBD energy mand…Avena Score Property quality + investment score (weights at /methodology/evolution).Avena ScoreAPCI Avena Property Cycle Index — composite cycle position.APCICounterpart Score Developer credit grade.Counterpart ScoreAVM Town × type median €/m² base with adjustments.AVMScore Confidence Adversarial residual layer.Score ConfidenceES coastal markets Costa Blanca / del Sol / Cálida residential.ES coastal marketsDE residential German urban residential.DE residentialPT residential Portuguese residential (Lisbon, Porto, Algarve).PT residentialBank Stress API /products/bank-stress-api — credit insurer endpoint.Bank Stress APIProperty Oracle /products/property-oracle — DeFi RWA endpoint.Property OracleCSRD Disclosure /products/csrd-disclosure — asset-manager endpoint.CSRD DisclosureDerivative Pricing /products/derivative-pricing — structured-product endpoint.Derivative Pricing
Declared edges · 20
FromToCoefLag (d)Mechanism
euribor_3mmeth_avena_score-0.3530Higher funding cost compresses affordability and value sub-score.
euribor_3mmeth_avm-0.2560Higher EURIBOR shrinks bid envelope; AVM medians retrace 60-90d after rate moves.
euribor_3mmeth_apci-0.3045Cycle position deteriorates as funding tightens.
ecb_dfreuribor_3m+0.855DFR is the curve anchor; passes through to 3M EURIBOR almost immediately.
eur_hicpecb_dfr+0.6090ECB reaction function: HICP > target → DFR hikes.
ez_unemploymentmeth_counterpart-0.2090Higher unemployment raises developer default tail.
reg_macroprudentialmeth_apci-0.20180Tightening macroprudential measures cool the cycle.
reg_rental_capsmeth_avena_score-0.15120Rental caps depress yield sub-score in affected regions.
reg_epbdmeth_avena_score-0.10365Older stock penalised on quality sub-score as renovation deadlines approach.
meth_avena_scoreregion_es_coast+0.501Scores roll up into the regional Avena Index.
meth_avena_scoreregion_de_resi+0.501Same for DE residential.
meth_avena_scoreregion_pt_resi+0.501Same for PT residential.
meth_avmregion_es_coast+0.401AVM medians anchor regional valuations.
meth_counterpartregion_es_coast+0.257Distressed developers depress regional supply confidence.
meth_confidencemeth_avena_score+0.300Adversarial residual layer modulates downstream score reliability.
meth_avmproduct_bank+0.900Bank Stress API consumes the AVM directly.
meth_avmproduct_oracle+0.850Property Oracle wraps AVM for on-chain RWA pricing.
meth_avena_scoreproduct_csrd+0.700CSRD disclosure pulls quality + risk sub-scores.
meth_apciproduct_derivs+0.750Derivative pricing uses APCI cycle position.
meth_counterpartproduct_csrd+0.300Counterpart grade feeds developer-risk disclosure.
How propagation works

The graph is declared in src/lib/causal-graph.ts — typed, version-controlled, audit-traceable. The event store (Commitment 1) records every upstream mutation, and downstream projections recompute when their upstreams change. Coefficients are conservative midpoints across the calibration windows in the cited literature; the methodology audit trail at /methodology/evolution versions every revision.

Regulatory radar →Live causal indicators →Stress test the graph →