Macroprudential simulation, to the postcode.
Built for the ECB, ESRB, national central banks, and supervisory authorities tasked with monitoring European residential property risk. Six policy levers × 27 EU countries × cohort weighting × forward 12-36 month projections. Calibrated against the Avena ground-truth corpus and the Vol. 2-4 sovereign briefing framework. Every output signed, every coefficient cited, every scenario reproducible.
Pick a lever. Pick a cohort. Run the scenario.
This is a public demo of the v1 engine. Outputs are deterministic and replayable — same inputs always produce the same simulation. Every coefficient is calibrated against the published Avena methodology (Vol. 2 OLS regression, Vol. 3 cross-validation, Vol. 4 cohort priors) and conservative literature priors (Cerutti/Claessens/Laeven 2017 IMF WP/17/19, ESRB 2019 framework recommendation, Banco de España 2020 stress test methodology).
Designed for regulatory replay.
Same inputs → same outputs. No random sampling, no Monte Carlo noise in v1. Suitable for committee replay and regulatory audit.
Every result carries an HMAC-SHA256 signature over the input and the summary outputs. Tampering breaks the signature.
Every coefficient links to its primary source — Vol. 2 OLS, IMF macroprudential framework, ESRB recommendation, BdE stress test methodology.
Methodology version is stamped on every output. Material changes are announced 30 days in advance at /changelog.
This is the public demo. The full engine ships with seven policy levers × 27 EU countries × custom cohort definitions × audit-grade replay.
Avena Institutional partners with central banks, supervisory authorities, and finance ministries on dedicated deployments. Includes white-label hosting on your domain (terminal.your-institution.eu), SSO integration with your identity provider, dedicated solutions architect for first-90-day onboarding, DPA + GDPR Article 28 processor agreement, SOC 2 attestation under shared-responsibility model, and direct line to the Avena Research Desk that authored the published methodology.
Reach the desk via the form at the bottom of any scenario, or directly: institutional@avenaterminal.com. Typical first-conversation: 30 minutes, NDA-optional.