Avena · Macro Anomaly Feed
Where official series
break their own trend.
Avena scans every observation in the EU official statistics layer daily. Any indicator that deviates more than 2 standard deviations from its trailing 8-period mean lands here, classified by severity. Refreshed 06:00 UTC.
1
Critical (≥3σ)
1
Alert (≥2.5σ)
3
Watch (≥2σ)
Methodology
For each (country, source, indicator) series, the engine compares the latest observation to the mean and standard deviation of the prior 8 periods. The z-score classifies the deviation: watch ≥2σ, alert ≥2.5σ, critical ≥3σ. Series with fewer than 8 prior observations are skipped. Methodology specification at Sovereign Briefing Vol. 3.
Detected anomalies
5 signals live.
| Severity | Country | Source | Indicator | Period | Value | Mean | z | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| critical | EA20 | ECB SDW | Euribor 3M — monthly average (%) | 2021-12 | -0.58 | -0.55 | -3.86 | ↓ down |
| watch | ES | ECB SDW | Mortgage rate — Spain, new business, total maturity (%) | 2021-12 | 1.38 | 1.47 | -2.36 | ↓ down |
| alert | FR | ECB SDW | Mortgage rate — France, new business, total maturity (%) | 2021-12 | 1.10 | 1.13 | -2.55 | ↓ down |
| watch | ES | ECB SDW | Mortgage rate — Spain, new business, total maturity (%) | 2022-12 | 2.96 | 2.02 | +2.13 | ↑ up |
| watch | FR | ECB SDW | Mortgage rate — France, new business, total maturity (%) | 2022-12 | 2.05 | 1.52 | +2.07 | ↑ up |