Asking-price book,
as observed.
A specimen of the cross-section and the short history an institutional reader can actually be shown today. Every figure is computed from the live book or from stored snapshots. Where a series does not exist, the section says so.
This is not a valuation, not a registered-sale index, and not a performance record. Feed exits are listings that left the source book. Yields are a model.
Generated 2026-10-22 09:38 UTC · Feed book stamped 2026-10-22 · Latest snapshot 2026-10-22
Market overview
Current asking book in public/data.json, scored at read time. Medians use listings with a positive price or €/m². A missing yield is left out of the yield median. It is not treated as zero.
By costa
Costa names are the strings stored on the feed, including inland and Cádiz splits. They are not collapsed into a region code.
| Costa | n | Median price | Median €/m² | P25 €/m² | P75 €/m² | Median score | Median yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Costa del Sol | 855 | €680 000 | €6 919 | €5 618 | €9 036 | 50 | 2.0% |
| Costa Blanca South | 480 | €349 000 | €4 795 | €4 083 | €5 725 | 49 | 4.9% |
| Costa Calida | 273 | €376 500 | €4 486 | €3 925 | €5 379 | 48 | 3.3% |
| Costa Blanca North | 250 | €557 500 | €6 068 | €5 106 | €7 201 | 52 | 5.0% |
| Costa Blanca South - Inland | 76 | €397 500 | €3 252 | €2 903 | €3 654 | 65 | 7.7% |
| Costa Calida - Inland | 54 | €332 000 | €3 650 | €2 775 | €4 235 | 49 | 2.8% |
| Costa del Sol (Cadiz) | 35 | €594 000 | €6 024 | €5 338 | €7 728 | 51 | 2.1% |
| Costa Blanca North - Inland | 10 | €532 950 | €3 939 | €3 749 | €5 256 | 57 | 7.2% |
| Costa Tropical | 6 | €361 500 | €4 987 | €2 905 | €5 020 | 53 | 2.7% |
By town
Towns with at least 5 listings. 31 smaller towns stay in the book totals and are not given their own row.
| Town | Costa | n | Median price | Median €/m² | P25 €/m² | P75 €/m² | Median score | Median yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estepona | Costa del Sol | 227 | €730 000 | €6 809 | €5 456 | €9 025 | 52 | 2.0% |
| Mijas | Costa del Sol | 195 | €565 000 | €6 726 | €5 521 | €8 289 | 47 | 2.1% |
| Torrevieja | Costa Blanca South | 111 | €305 000 | €4 983 | €4 166 | €5 694 | 53 | 3.8% |
| Fuengirola | Costa del Sol | 101 | €720 000 | €7 468 | €6 281 | €9 686 | 51 | 2.0% |
| Pilar de La Horadada | Costa Blanca South | 90 | €369 700 | €5 071 | €4 348 | €5 859 | 47 | 5.8% |
| Marbella | Costa del Sol | 84 | €1 015 500 | €8 203 | €6 528 | €12 117 | 46 | 1.8% |
| Los Alcazares | Costa Calida | 77 | €399 000 | €4 650 | €4 238 | €5 523 | 46 | 3.0% |
| Finestrat | Costa Blanca North | 59 | €550 000 | €5 598 | €4 813 | €6 496 | 49 | 5.2% |
| Guardamar del Segura | Costa Blanca South | 54 | €315 000 | €4 588 | €4 200 | €5 651 | 53 | 4.4% |
| Casares | Costa del Sol | 52 | €564 000 | €5 936 | €4 979 | €6 978 | 52 | 2.1% |
| San Pedro del Pinatar | Costa Calida | 52 | €302 475 | €4 352 | €3 977 | €5 207 | 48 | 3.5% |
| Torre Pacheco | Costa Calida | 48 | €309 950 | €4 141 | €3 602 | €4 880 | 39 | 2.7% |
| Benijofar | Costa Blanca South | 41 | €389 900 | €4 708 | €4 227 | €5 339 | 39 | 5.5% |
| Manilva | Costa del Sol | 40 | €490 500 | €5 934 | €4 363 | €7 841 | 56 | 2.2% |
| Benahavís | Costa del Sol | 35 | €1 295 000 | €9 421 | €7 487 | €12 784 | 42 | 1.8% |
| San Miguel de Salinas | Costa Blanca South | 32 | €267 876 | €4 078 | €3 566 | €5 068 | 50 | 2.2% |
| Pinoso | Costa Blanca South - Inland | 31 | €473 500 | €3 055 | €2 956 | €3 748 | 61 | 7.9% |
| Villajoyosa | Costa Blanca North | 31 | €430 000 | €6 350 | €5 513 | €7 614 | 47 | 5.1% |
| Algorfa | Costa Blanca South | 30 | €431 000 | €4 782 | €3 396 | €5 696 | 46 | 5.0% |
| Polop | Costa Blanca North | 27 | €650 650 | €6 193 | €5 938 | €6 618 | 44 | 3.9% |
| Rojales | Costa Blanca South | 25 | €529 000 | €4 843 | €4 084 | €6 487 | 38 | 5.2% |
| Málaga | Costa del Sol | 24 | €945 000 | €8 180 | €5 648 | €12 884 | 42 | 1.8% |
| Orihuela Costa | Costa Blanca South | 22 | €794 950 | €6 435 | €5 159 | €7 469 | 58 | 5.0% |
| Baños y Mendigo | Costa Calida | 21 | €461 000 | €4 570 | €4 080 | €5 813 | 40 | 2.9% |
| Benalmádena | Costa del Sol | 21 | €750 000 | €6 420 | €5 620 | €8 358 | 52 | 2.2% |
| Torremolinos | Costa del Sol | 21 | €675 000 | €7 370 | €6 419 | €8 948 | 44 | 2.0% |
| San Roque | Costa del Sol (Cadiz) | 18 | €600 000 | €5 865 | €5 258 | €7 460 | 59 | 2.1% |
| San Javier | Costa Calida | 17 | €389 000 | €4 863 | €3 899 | €6 166 | 48 | 4.1% |
| Calpe | Costa Blanca North | 16 | €657 500 | €8 345 | €5 196 | €9 869 | 48 | 6.4% |
| Orihuela | Costa Blanca South | 16 | €438 450 | €4 662 | €4 432 | €6 117 | 62 | 6.8% |
| Alicante | Costa Blanca North | 15 | €301 900 | €4 752 | €4 549 | €5 280 | 64 | 5.5% |
| Fuente Álamo | Costa Calida - Inland | 14 | €343 400 | €3 787 | €3 287 | €4 657 | 55 | 2.5% |
| Vélez Málaga | Costa del Sol | 14 | €446 500 | €5 468 | €4 811 | €6 206 | 66 | 2.5% |
| Aguilas | Costa Calida | 13 | €385 000 | €5 015 | €4 170 | €6 525 | 53 | 3.3% |
| Jávea Xàbia | Costa Blanca North | 13 | €647 000 | €7 740 | €6 280 | €8 542 | 54 | 4.8% |
| la Nucia | Costa Blanca North | 13 | €449 427 | €5 635 | €4 871 | €6 161 | 36 | 7.0% |
| rincon de la victoria | Costa del Sol | 13 | €440 000 | €5 864 | €5 205 | €6 667 | 55 | 2.2% |
| Alhama De Murcia | Costa Calida - Inland | 12 | €290 500 | €4 133 | €3 839 | €4 502 | 34 | 2.3% |
| El Verger | Costa Blanca North | 12 | €377 250 | €5 762 | €5 133 | €6 385 | 57 | 5.5% |
| Hondón de las Nieves | Costa Blanca South - Inland | 12 | €250 000 | €3 382 | €2 834 | €3 732 | 64 | 7.2% |
| La Linea De La Concepcion | Costa del Sol (Cadiz) | 12 | €503 000 | €6 751 | €5 963 | €9 664 | 45 | 1.9% |
| Benissa | Costa Blanca North | 11 | €2 600 000 | €9 828 | €7 832 | €10 943 | 54 | 4.0% |
| Denia | Costa Blanca North | 11 | €450 000 | €5 465 | €5 039 | €6 399 | 49 | 4.9% |
| El Campello | Costa Blanca North | 11 | €660 000 | €6 462 | €5 983 | €7 932 | 51 | 5.7% |
| Cartagena | Costa Calida | 10 | €480 500 | €4 932 | €4 343 | €5 560 | 41 | 3.0% |
| Ciudad Quesada | Costa Blanca South | 10 | €558 500 | €4 743 | €4 453 | €5 490 | 43 | 5.5% |
| Dolores | Costa Blanca South | 10 | €422 500 | €4 041 | €3 833 | €4 671 | 47 | 7.2% |
| La Manga Club | Costa Calida | 10 | €487 500 | €5 194 | €4 500 | €6 221 | 44 | 7.9% |
| La Manga del Mar Menor | Costa Calida | 10 | €330 000 | €4 425 | €3 363 | €4 830 | 67 | 3.8% |
| San Pedro De Alcantara | Costa del Sol | 10 | €728 900 | €9 066 | €7 331 | €10 063 | 44 | 1.9% |
| Santa Pola | Costa Blanca South | 10 | €274 000 | €4 199 | €4 106 | €4 421 | 66 | 4.5% |
| Mazarron | Costa Calida - Inland | 9 | €269 900 | €2 406 | €2 170 | €2 809 | 66 | 8.0% |
| Mutxamel | Costa Blanca North | 9 | €399 000 | €5 210 | €4 125 | €5 471 | 65 | 5.4% |
| Aspe | Costa Blanca South - Inland | 8 | €459 000 | €3 377 | €3 299 | €3 673 | 48 | 7.3% |
| Cox | Costa Blanca South - Inland | 7 | €235 000 | €3 483 | €3 343 | €3 589 | 69 | 7.6% |
| Moraira_Teulada | Costa Blanca North | 7 | €2 175 000 | €7 967 | €7 877 | €8 938 | 65 | 4.1% |
| Puerto de Mazarron | Costa Calida | 7 | €235 000 | €3 863 | €3 753 | €4 382 | 64 | 4.5% |
| San Fulgencio | Costa Blanca South | 7 | €319 900 | €4 158 | €3 954 | €5 311 | 49 | 5.9% |
| Almuñecar | Costa Tropical | 6 | €361 500 | €4 987 | €2 905 | €5 020 | 53 | 2.7% |
| Bigastro | Costa Blanca South | 6 | €212 900 | €3 121 | €2 994 | €3 284 | 60 | 7.1% |
| La Romana | Costa Blanca South - Inland | 6 | €382 500 | €3 341 | €3 052 | €3 561 | 68 | 8.1% |
| Ojen | Costa del Sol | 6 | €1 045 550 | €8 622 | €8 486 | €10 679 | 65 | 2.0% |
| Torrox | Costa del Sol | 6 | €357 500 | €4 763 | €4 464 | €5 052 | 63 | 2.3% |
| Catral | Costa Blanca South - Inland | 5 | €213 000 | €2 760 | €2 700 | €2 840 | 68 | 7.2% |
| La Marina | Costa Blanca South | 5 | €299 000 | €4 211 | €4 070 | €5 100 | 65 | 5.7% |
| Monforte del Cid | Costa Blanca North - Inland | 5 | €549 900 | €5 237 | €3 912 | €5 262 | 72 | 7.4% |
| Sotogrande | Costa del Sol (Cadiz) | 5 | €1 014 000 | €5 761 | €3 510 | €6 408 | 66 | 2.3% |
Price levels and trend
Ground truth is price_snapshots from 2026-08-05 to 2026-10-22 (72 observed days, 78 calendar days). The line is the median asking €/m² of the book on sampled days. The mix changes as listings enter and leave. The paired figure holds the ref fixed.
- No snapshot from 2026-10-14 through 2026-10-20 (7 days).
Sampled observation days, not a filled calendar. 2026-08-05 to 2026-10-22.
| Date | Listings | Priced | Median price | Median €/m² |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 1 990 | 1 990 | €479 925 | €5 557 |
| 2026-08-12 | 2 004 | 2 004 | €480 000 | €5 559 |
| 2026-08-19 | 2 011 | 2 011 | €477 500 | €5 548 |
| 2026-08-26 | 2 036 | 2 036 | €479 925 | €5 584 |
| 2026-09-02 | 2 033 | 2 033 | €480 000 | €5 597 |
| 2026-09-09 | 2 037 | 2 037 | €483 000 | €5 591 |
| 2026-09-16 | 2 046 | 2 046 | €484 500 | €5 601 |
| 2026-09-23 | 2 036 | 2 036 | €483 000 | €5 599 |
| 2026-09-30 | 2 029 | 2 029 | €487 000 | €5 622 |
| 2026-10-07 | 2 033 | 2 033 | €489 000 | €5 622 |
| 2026-10-21 | 2 034 | 2 034 | €485 000 | €5 628 |
| 2026-10-22 | 2 039 | 2 039 | €485 000 | €5 625 |
Paired change by region
Region labels are the most common costa name on the current book for that region code. The code is kept when the book has no match.
| Region | Paired | Median asking-price change |
|---|---|---|
| Costa del Sol | 773 | 0.00% |
| Costa Blanca South | 461 | 0.00% |
| Costa Calida | 274 | 0.00% |
| Costa Blanca North | 236 | 0.00% |
Paired change by town
Towns with at least 30 listings present on both days. 82 towns are below that bar.
| Town | Paired | Median asking-price change |
|---|---|---|
| Estepona | 197 | 0.00% |
| Mijas | 163 | 0.00% |
| Torrevieja | 99 | 0.00% |
| Fuengirola | 86 | 0.00% |
| Marbella | 81 | 0.00% |
| Pilar de La Horadada | 76 | 0.00% |
| Los Alcazares | 60 | 0.00% |
| Finestrat | 54 | 0.00% |
| Casares | 48 | 0.00% |
| San Pedro del Pinatar | 48 | 0.00% |
| Torre Pacheco | 40 | 0.00% |
| Benijofar | 35 | 0.00% |
| Benahavís | 32 | 0.00% |
| Guardamar del Segura | 30 | 0.00% |
Supply and feed exits
An exit is a listing in the 2026-08-05 snapshot that is absent on 2026-10-22. It is recorded when sold_properties has that ref on or after 2026-08-05. A ref that is in the delisting ledger and back in the latest snapshot is a relisting, not an exit. None of these rows is a notary sale.
38 delisting rows are for refs that were not in the start-day book. They are not in the exit rate.
| Region | Start | Latest | Recorded exits | Unrecorded | Relisted | Exit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Costa del Sol | 859 | 896 | 86 | 0 | 19 | 10.0% |
| Costa Blanca South | 537 | 556 | 68 | 8 | 2 | 14.2% |
| Costa Calida | 316 | 327 | 41 | 1 | 7 | 13.3% |
| Costa Blanca North | 278 | 260 | 42 | 0 | 11 | 15.1% |
Towns
Starting book of at least 30. 81 towns omitted.
| Town | Start | Latest | Recorded exits | Unrecorded | Relisted | Exit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estepona | 231 | 227 | 34 | 0 | 11 | 14.7% |
| Mijas | 176 | 195 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 7.4% |
| Torrevieja | 110 | 111 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 10.0% |
| Fuengirola | 99 | 101 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13.1% |
| Pilar de La Horadada | 91 | 90 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 16.5% |
| Marbella | 88 | 84 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 8.0% |
| Los Alcazares | 77 | 77 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 22.1% |
| Finestrat | 67 | 59 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 19.4% |
| San Pedro del Pinatar | 52 | 52 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7.7% |
| Casares | 49 | 52 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.0% |
| Torre Pacheco | 47 | 48 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14.9% |
| Guardamar del Segura | 46 | 54 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 34.8% |
| Benijofar | 37 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5.4% |
| Benahavís | 33 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.0% |
| Villajoyosa | 33 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12.1% |
Score and modelled yield
Score, current book
- Under 40590
- 40–49411
- 50–59330
- 60–69557
- 70–79150
- 80 and above1
Modelled gross yield
- Under 4%1 315
- 4% to under 6%429
- 6% to under 8%231
- 8% and above64
1 066 listings used a town rental card. 973 used a regional or estimated card. The yield is not observed rent on the unit.
Methodology
The live book is Avena's nightly capture of agency-marketed new-build listings, written to public/data.json. Asking €/m² is price divided by built area. The benchmark €/m² on each listing is written when that feed is parsed: listings with a built area receive a hedonic estimate (a price-tier fit when that tier has enough listings, otherwise a global fit), and listings without area fall back to a town or region median of asking €/m².
The Avena score is computed at read time. Weights in src/lib/scoring.ts are value 0.40, modelled gross yield 0.25, location 0.20, quality 0.10, completion risk 0.05. The value term is the gap between asking €/m² and the benchmark. Gross yield is a short-let model (nightly rate, occupied weeks, size and price multipliers) minus a fixed ownership-cost sketch for the net figure. This report publishes the gross figure only.
Historical prices are price_snapshots on or after 2026-08-05, the day the capture was pointed at the live feed. Rows before that date are excluded. Delistings are written only when the prior snapshot is at most 4 days old and the new feed still covers at least half of the prior refs. A quiet or broken feed is not allowed to mark the book as sold.
AVM error, read from public/model-stats.json (2026-10-22), avm-runtime-v1: median absolute error 16.0%, MAPE 22.1%, 59.3% within 20%, n=2 039. The file marks this error as in-sample against asking prices. In-sample: town × type medians are drawn from the same book, so each listing contributes to its own baseline. Out-of-sample error is higher. Target is asking price, not registered transaction price. Spanish coastal new-build transaction prices are not publicly available at listing level.
The published formula note is at /methodology. The score comparison against later prices is at /track-record.
Data coverage
- Ledger epoch
- Snapshots and scores before 2026-08-05 are excluded. That earlier archive repeated a frozen registry.
- Snapshot span
- 2026-08-05 to 2026-10-22, 72 observed days, calendar from the published movement ledger after its endpoints matched the live table.
- Score span
- 2026-08-05 to 2026-10-22.
- Rows excluded before the epoch
- score_history 191 862; price_snapshots 1 881.
- What this report does not contain
- No registered Spanish transaction prices, no official appraisal series, no second listing source, and no claim that a feed exit was a sale. French DVF rows in the database are a different country and are not used here.