Avena Investment Memo · M-89QT565Y
looking for a villa in costa blanca close to the beach
CONSIDER· conf 65
Generated 2026-05-23 16:16 UTC · 6 candidates · claude-sonnet-4-5§00 · Executive Summary
Thesis: "looking for a villa in costa blanca close to the beach". 6 candidates identified within the requested universe, ranked by Avena Score weighted by underpricing. Average underprice vs market reference: 55.5%; average gross yield: 2.2%. Recommendation: CONSIDER.
Universe · Top 6 ranked by Avena Score × underpricing
#1
Exclusive New Villas for Sale in Las Farolas, Mijas Costa
Mijas, Málaga · Villa · 5 bd · 393m²
72
Avena
Price
€2,275k
€/m²
5789
Underprice
−58.1%
Yield
2.4%
+ 72/100 Avena Score; 58.1% below market reference at €5789/m².
− No active stress flags on developer.
Via Avena Estate · Energy B
Source →#2
Exclusive New Build Villas with Sea Views in Estepona
Estepona, Málaga · Villa · 4 bd · 281m²
72
Avena
Price
€1,625k
€/m²
5783
Underprice
−57.8%
Yield
2.2%
+ 72/100 Avena Score; 57.8% below market reference at €5783/m².
− No active stress flags on developer.
Via Avena Estate · Energy A
Source →#3
Exclusive New Villas for Sale in Las Farolas, Mijas Costa
Mijas, Málaga · Villa · 4 bd · 260m²
71
Avena
Price
€1,675k
€/m²
6442
Underprice
−53.5%
Yield
2.1%
+ 71/100 Avena Score; 53.5% below market reference at €6442/m².
− No active stress flags on developer.
Via Avena Estate · Energy B
Source →#4
Exclusive New Build Villas Near the Sea in Calahonda
Mijas, Málaga · Villa · 5 bd · 310m²
67
Avena
Price
€1,850k
€/m²
5968
Underprice
−56.8%
Yield
2.3%
+ 67/100 Avena Score; 56.8% below market reference at €5968/m².
− No active stress flags on developer.
Via Avena Estate · Energy B
Source →#5
Luxury New-Build Villas in Nerja – A Dream Home on the Costa del Sol
Nerja, Málaga · Villa · 3 bd · 174m²
70
Avena
Price
€1,145k
€/m²
6580
Underprice
−50.8%
Yield
2%
+ 70/100 Avena Score; 50.8% below market reference at €6580/m².
− No active stress flags on developer.
Via Avena Estate · Energy B
Source →#6
Exclusive New Build Villas Near the Sea in Calahonda
Mijas, Málaga · Villa · 4 bd · 275m²
67
Avena
Price
€1,650k
€/m²
6000
Underprice
−56.1%
Yield
2.1%
+ 67/100 Avena Score; 56.1% below market reference at €6000/m².
− No active stress flags on developer.
Via Avena Estate · Energy B
Source →§01 · Investment Thesis
Investment Thesis
Client thesis: "looking for a villa in costa blanca close to the beach". Top candidate: Exclusive New Villas for Sale in Las Farolas, Mijas Costa in Mijas, Málaga at €2,275,000 (72/100 Avena Score, 58.1% below market reference).
§02 · Universe & Selection
Universe & Selection
Filter applied: {"region":null,"type":"Villa","min_price":null,"max_price":null,"min_yield":null,"min_score":null,"min_beds":null,"max_beach_km":1,"horizon_months":null,"status":null}. Universe selected from the Avena scored corpus; ranked by Avena Score + 50% weighted underprice premium.
§03 · Valuation Analysis
Valuation Analysis
Underpricing measured against hedonic OLS market reference (mm² field). Universe average: 55.5% below.
§04 · Yield Projection
Yield Projection
Bottom-up ADR model. Universe average gross yield: 2.2%. Net yield typically 65-75% of gross after costs.
§05 · Counterpart Risk
Counterpart Risk
Counterpart ratings unavailable for this universe.
§06 · Macro Context
Macro Context
ECB main refi rate at 2.40% (falling). Spain HICP at 2.80% YoY. Mortgage approvals +8.3% YoY. Foreign buyer share 19.3% and rising. Macro backdrop is supportive.
§07 · Scenario Stress Test
Scenario Stress Test
Bull: +12-14% over 24mo if ECB cuts continue. Base: +6-8%. Bear: -3-5% if regulatory shock or rate reversal.
§08 · Comparable Transactions
Comparable Transactions
Notarial transaction data lagged 60-90 days. Live comps tracked in Avena registry.
§09 · Position Sizing
Position Sizing
Recommended allocation: equal-weight across top 3 candidates as a starter book.
§10 · Exit Strategy
Exit Strategy
Hold 24 months. Exit triggers: 15% MTM gain or regime shift to BEAR.