Avena Investment Memo · M-XP8UP9KX
Costa Calida villas under €500k with gross yield above 6%
BUY· conf 65
Generated 2026-05-23 16:22 UTC · 3 candidates · claude-sonnet-4-5§00 · Executive Summary
Thesis: "Costa Calida villas under €500k with gross yield above 6%". 3 candidates identified within the requested universe, ranked by Avena Score weighted by underpricing. Average underprice vs market reference: 23.7%; average gross yield: 7.1%. Recommendation: BUY.
Universe · Top 3 ranked by Avena Score × underpricing
#1
Newly built detached villas with private pools in the Mazarrón Country Club
Mazarron, Murcia · Villa · 3 bd · 85m²
70
Avena
Price
€300k
€/m²
3528
Underprice
−27.1%
Yield
8%
+ 70/100 Avena Score; 27.1% below market reference at €3528/m².
− No active stress flags on developer.
Via Xavia Estate · Energy B
Source →#2
NEW BUILD RESIDENTIAL COMPLEX IN AGUILAS
Aguilas, Murcia · Villa · 4 bd · 100m²
71
Avena
Price
€405k
€/m²
4050
Underprice
−23.7%
Yield
6.6%
+ 71/100 Avena Score; 23.7% below market reference at €4050/m².
− No active stress flags on developer.
Via Xavia Estate · Energy B
Source →#3
New Build Detached Villas for Sale in Aguilas Murcia Just 500 m from the Beach
Aguilas, Murcia · Villa · 4 bd · 137m²
72
Avena
Price
€399k
€/m²
2912
Underprice
−20.4%
Yield
6.7%
+ 72/100 Avena Score; 20.4% below market reference at €2912/m².
− No active stress flags on developer.
Via Xavia Estate · Energy B
Source →§01 · Investment Thesis
Investment Thesis
Client thesis: "Costa Calida villas under €500k with gross yield above 6%". Top candidate: Newly built detached villas with private pools in the Mazarrón Country Club in Mazarron, Murcia at €299,900 (70/100 Avena Score, 27.1% below market reference).
§02 · Universe & Selection
Universe & Selection
Filter applied: {"region":"costa-calida","type":"Villa","min_price":null,"max_price":500000,"min_yield":6,"min_score":null,"min_beds":null,"max_beach_km":null,"horizon_months":null,"status":null}. Universe selected from the Avena scored corpus; ranked by Avena Score + 50% weighted underprice premium.
§03 · Valuation Analysis
Valuation Analysis
Underpricing measured against hedonic OLS market reference (mm² field). Universe average: 23.7% below.
§04 · Yield Projection
Yield Projection
Bottom-up ADR model. Universe average gross yield: 7.1%. Net yield typically 65-75% of gross after costs.
§05 · Counterpart Risk
Counterpart Risk
Counterpart ratings unavailable for this universe.
§06 · Macro Context
Macro Context
ECB main refi rate at 2.40% (falling). Spain HICP at 2.80% YoY. Mortgage approvals +8.3% YoY. Foreign buyer share 19.3% and rising. Macro backdrop is supportive.
§07 · Scenario Stress Test
Scenario Stress Test
Bull: +12-14% over 24mo if ECB cuts continue. Base: +6-8%. Bear: -3-5% if regulatory shock or rate reversal.
§08 · Comparable Transactions
Comparable Transactions
Notarial transaction data lagged 60-90 days. Live comps tracked in Avena registry.
§09 · Position Sizing
Position Sizing
Recommended allocation: equal-weight across top 3 candidates as a starter book.
§10 · Exit Strategy
Exit Strategy
Hold 24 months. Exit triggers: 15% MTM gain or regime shift to BEAR.