Avena Investment Memo · M-YJSPKFWA
mac 400k euro
BUY· conf 65
Generated 2026-05-27 19:03 UTC · 6 candidates · claude-sonnet-4-5§00 · Executive Summary
Thesis: "mac 400k euro". 6 candidates identified within the requested universe, ranked by Avena Score weighted by underpricing. Average underprice vs market reference: 35.2%; average gross yield: 8.7%. Recommendation: BUY.
Universe · Top 6 ranked by Avena Score × underpricing
#1
New Build Apartments in Jacarilla, Alicante – Tranquility and Comfort
Jacarilla, Alicante · Apartment · 3 bd · 69m²
77
Avena
Price
€159k
€/m²
2297
Underprice
−39.8%
Yield
11.3%
+ 77/100 Avena Score; 39.8% below market reference at €2297/m².
− No active stress flags on developer.
Via Xavia Estate · Energy B
Source →#2
New Build Apartments in Jacarilla, Alicante – Tranquility and Comfort
Jacarilla, Alicante · Penthouse · 3 bd · 63m²
77
Avena
Price
€187k
€/m²
2968
Underprice
−36.1%
Yield
9.6%
+ 77/100 Avena Score; 36.1% below market reference at €2968/m².
− No active stress flags on developer.
Via Xavia Estate · Energy B
Source →#3
New Build Apartments in Jacarilla, Alicante – Tranquility and Comfort
Jacarilla, Alicante · Apartment · 3 bd · 63m²
77
Avena
Price
€170k
€/m²
2698
Underprice
−30.3%
Yield
10.5%
+ 77/100 Avena Score; 30.3% below market reference at €2698/m².
− No active stress flags on developer.
Via Xavia Estate · Energy B
Source →#4
New Build Townhouses with Sea Views in Portman Murcia
La Union, Murcia · Townhouse · 2 bd · 76m²
68
Avena
Price
€198k
€/m²
2605
Underprice
−48.3%
Yield
3.4%
+ 68/100 Avena Score; 48.3% below market reference at €2605/m².
− No active stress flags on developer.
Via Xavia Estate · Energy B
Source →#5
New Build Villas in La Finca Golf Resort Algorfa
Algorfa, Alicante · Villa · 3 bd · 90m²
76
Avena
Price
€400k
€/m²
4444
Underprice
−31.6%
Yield
7.5%
+ 76/100 Avena Score; 31.6% below market reference at €4444/m².
− No active stress flags on developer.
Via Xavia Estate · Energy B
Source →#6
New Bungalows and Townhouses in Cox, Alicante
Cox, Alicante · Townhouse · 3 bd · 90m²
79
Avena
Price
€255k
€/m²
2833
Underprice
−25.1%
Yield
10%
+ 79/100 Avena Score; 25.1% below market reference at €2833/m².
− No active stress flags on developer.
Via Xavia Estate · Energy B
Source →§01 · Investment Thesis
Investment Thesis
Client thesis: "mac 400k euro". Top candidate: New Build Apartments in Jacarilla, Alicante – Tranquility and Comfort in Jacarilla, Alicante at €158,500 (77/100 Avena Score, 39.8% below market reference).
§02 · Universe & Selection
Universe & Selection
Filter applied: {"region":null,"type":null,"min_price":null,"max_price":400000,"min_yield":null,"min_score":null,"min_beds":null,"max_beach_km":null,"horizon_months":null,"status":null}. Universe selected from the Avena scored corpus; ranked by Avena Score + 50% weighted underprice premium.
§03 · Valuation Analysis
Valuation Analysis
Underpricing measured against hedonic OLS market reference (mm² field). Universe average: 35.2% below.
§04 · Yield Projection
Yield Projection
Bottom-up ADR model. Universe average gross yield: 8.7%. Net yield typically 65-75% of gross after costs.
§05 · Counterpart Risk
Counterpart Risk
Counterpart ratings unavailable for this universe.
§06 · Macro Context
Macro Context
ECB main refi rate at 2.40% (falling). Spain HICP at 2.80% YoY. Mortgage approvals +8.3% YoY. Foreign buyer share 19.3% and rising. Macro backdrop is supportive.
§07 · Scenario Stress Test
Scenario Stress Test
Bull: +12-14% over 24mo if ECB cuts continue. Base: +6-8%. Bear: -3-5% if regulatory shock or rate reversal.
§08 · Comparable Transactions
Comparable Transactions
Notarial transaction data lagged 60-90 days. Live comps tracked in Avena registry.
§09 · Position Sizing
Position Sizing
Recommended allocation: equal-weight across top 3 candidates as a starter book.
§10 · Exit Strategy
Exit Strategy
Hold 24 months. Exit triggers: 15% MTM gain or regime shift to BEAR.