All signals
PRC-2026-06-REG-277regulatory bearish

Spain finalizes draft law mandating energy efficiency certificates for rental properties

The Spanish Ministry for Ecological Transition has submitted to Parliament a draft law requiring all residential rental properties to achieve minimum Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) rating of 'E' by 2028 and 'D' by 2030, aligning with EU Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) recast. Properties failing compliance face rental prohibition. The draft follows similar UK Section 21 EPC requirements and French 'passoires thermiques' rental bans implemented 2023-2025.

Confidence
78%
Magnitude
moderate 3-7%
Historical impact
-4.2%
Time lag
6 mo
Current APCI
68.3
Projected low
63.5
Projected high
66.1
Sample size
3

Avena analysis.

Historical comparables include UK's 2018 EPC 'E' minimum requirement (4.1% median price decline for non-compliant properties within 12 months), France's 2023 'G' rated rental ban (5.8% discount emergence for affected stock), and Netherlands' 2023 'C' rating mandate (3.2% immediate valuation adjustment). Spain's aging coastal rental stock—approximately 42% of Costa Blanca investment properties hold 'F' or 'G' ratings per 2025 IDAE data—faces retrofit costs averaging €12,000-€18,000 per unit, creating negative carry for leveraged investors. Signal falsification: if Parliament delays implementation beyond 2029 or exempts properties built pre-1980 (representing 67% of affected stock), downward pressure dissipates.

Affected markets.

Costa BlancaCosta del SolCosta CálidaMallorcaMadridBarcelonaValencia

Detected 18 Jun 2026 · Tracking until 10 Dec 2027· CC BY 4.0