Regional Forecast Model · Updated Quarterly

12-month price/m² projections.

Macro-adjusted trend extrapolation across Spanish coastal markets. Base growth rates from five-year historicals, adjusted by eight macro indicators (ECB policy rate, Euribor, EUR/GBP/NOK/SEK, Spain GDP, HICP, unemployment, mortgage approvals).

API GET /api/forecastMethodology /methodologyCite DOI 10.5281/zenodo.19520064
By region · 12-month adjusted forecast

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Methodology

Macro-adjusted trend extrapolation.

Base growth rates derived from five-year historical region medians. Adjusted by eight macro indicators sourced live from ECB SDW and Eurostat: policy rate, Euribor 3M, EUR/GBP, EUR/NOK, EUR/SEK, Spain GDP, HICP inflation, unemployment, mortgage approvals YoY. Bull and bear cases stress each adjustment ±1.5σ. Confidence label reflects the spread of the 90% interval — wider spread = lower confidence.

Full mathematical specification at /methodology. Methodology version bumps announced 30 days in advance at /changelog.

Cite as
Kolstad, H. (2026).
Avena Regional Forecast Model.
Avena Terminal. avenaterminal.com/forecast
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19520064

API GET /api/forecast · CC BY 4.0

First systematic property forecast model in Spain · Updated quarterly