Spain's draft Golden Visa abolition passes Congress committee vote
On May 19, 2026, Spain's Congress Budget Committee approved draft legislation eliminating the €500,000 property investment route for residency permits, with full parliamentary vote scheduled June 2026. The Ministry of Inclusion, Social Security and Migrations confirmed the measure targets housing affordability in Madrid, Barcelona, Málaga, Alicante, and Balearic markets. Implementation would occur 90 days post-Royal Decree, likely Q3 2026.
Avena analysis.
Historical comparables include Portugal's Golden Visa property exclusion in Lisbon/Porto (October 2023), which saw luxury segment prices decline 5.8% over 5 months with transaction volumes dropping 34% in affected postcodes. Ireland's IIP closure (February 2023) similarly triggered 3.2% price softening in Dublin's prime markets within 90 days. Spain's program issued 4,817 property-based visas in 2025 (Ministerio data), concentrated 68% in the five affected markets, representing €2.4bn annual investment flow. The signal's impact hinges on Chinese and MENA buyer substitution; if alternative visa pathways (entrepreneurship, remote work) absorb >60% of displaced demand by Q4 2026, price impact would remain <2%. Falsifiability: Coalition government collapse before June vote or amendment raising threshold to €1M+ instead of abolition would invalidate bearish thesis.
Affected markets.
Detected 21 May 2026 · Tracking until 21 Nov 2027· CC BY 4.0