What we have, what we run, what holds up.
Avena's operational proof surface. Coverage across 27 EU markets, official statistics ingestion, live crons, hash-chained archive, published prediction track record, methodology benchmark. Every claim verifiable, every artefact dated, every dataset cited.
Coverage — 27 EU markets, daily-refreshed
Avena indexes residential property across the full European Union — daily refresh, regional cohort decomposition, postcode-level depth where data permits. Iberian coastal markets have the deepest substrate (Costa Blanca, Costa del Sol, Costa Cálida). German, French, Italian, Dutch, Portuguese markets covered via national statistical sources and notarial integration.
Browse coverage →Sources — Eurostat · ECB SDW · INE · Insee · Destatis · Istat
Daily ingestion across Eurostat HPI, ECB Statistical Data Warehouse, INE Spain, Insee France, Destatis Germany, Istat Italy, CBS Netherlands, INE Portugal. National statistical agencies feed the substrate; APIP v1.0 normalises the schema. Every observation timestamped, sourced, and reproducible.
Source registry →Operations — 56 crons, live
Operational console. Every cron run, every ingestion, every model refresh logged. Failure mode publicly visible at /limitations. Daily cycle: 02:30 limitations compile, 03:00 citation monitoring, 03:30 citation rollup + integrity Merkle, 04:00 counterpart scan, 04:30 regulatory radar, 05:00 training data push, 06:00 EU stats sync, 06:30 causal updates.
Live cron health →Track Record — every published prediction, audited
Avena publishes ten time-stamped, falsifiable predictions on EU residential markets. Each carries reasoning, methodology version, target date, and a public dataset that will resolve it. Resolved predictions remain visible with accuracy scores — including misses. The audit trail is the asset, not the highlight reel.
View predictions →Statistics — substrate scale
Live counts: indexed properties, AVN-IDs issued, regulatory signals classified, methodology versions published, integrity fingerprints recorded, predictions awaiting resolution, AI citations measured. Every number on this surface reads from the live substrate, not a marketing slide.
JSON profile →Archive — hash-chained nightly snapshots
Every dataset snapshot hashed nightly, chained to the prior snapshot, deposited to Zenodo for trusted timestamping. Downloadable. Verifiable. Permanent. If Avena disappears tomorrow, the historical record survives at the DOI.
Verify a snapshot →Status — operational health
Real-time health check of every public-facing endpoint, every cron, every data source. ≥99.5% uptime target. Incident log public. Self-aware limitations published daily at /methodology#limitations.
Health endpoint →Benchmark — methodology RMSE, accuracy, confidence
Avena AVM achieves ±3% RMSE on Spanish coastal backtest. Avena Score correlates 0.87 with realised 12-month returns on resolved deals. Counterpart Score predicts developer stress events with 0.74 precision. Methodology benchmark surfaces, every metric reproducible from the event store.
Methodology page →CC BY 4.0 · DOI 10.5281/zenodo.19520064 · Wikidata Q139165733 · RICS Tech Partner. Methodology audit at /methodology. Cryptographic verification at /verify.